Reply #5: No big deal [View All]

[Braulio]

The new agreement was precipitated by Ecuador's shutting down of the Manta base to the Americans. The number of soldiers allowed under the agreement is EXACTLY the same as under the previous, existing deal. The only difference is they're allowed to use MORE bases. In a sense, this is a tit for tat signal to Chavez that if he presses the USA in one area, the USA will pop up harder wherever it feels it's convenient. If Chavez keeps screwing around, they may just put a base in Aruba and Guayana, just to tickle his nose.

As for the US soldier function, it's limited to intelligence gathering. And this is what scares the heck out of the FARC (and Chavez by inference). The USA will be taking Predator drones to Colombia, and these will allow very close monitoring of FARC bases, which can then be destroyed from the air followed by clean up by helicopter-borne troops. This technological approach to counterinsurgency has been highly evolved in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US military wants to work out the bugs in Colombia. They'll be using infrared, night vision, ground radar, pheronome sniffers, you name it. I think the FARC is toast, 90 % of their personnel isn't fit to serve in a urban guerrilla environment, so they'll probably end up in Venezuela, hiding near the border.