Reply #15: Can't compare a primary to general election [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

Primaries are incredibly fragile. I've learned that the hard way, many losing stances and often by shocking margin. Likeminded people can tilt together in the late going, producing wild results. In this case, Greene saturated the airways for months and slowly gained hesitant support until he was exposed late and the numbers caved in. That will hardly be the dynamic in a general election, with at least 80% locked in right now.

Rubio as a Republican in this climate will get into the low to mid 30s at minimum. Crist as independent doesn't have that guarantee but his support won't dip below mid to high 20s. Meek's low tide is low 20s.

That's the scenario, a battle for less than 20% and we're forced to nearly sweep every one of them for Meek to have a chance. I posted similar about Connecticut in 2006 and bet heavily on Lieberman based on the logical distribution, even as posters here were convinced Lamont could stage a comeback similar to the primary.