Reply #75: I agree with you in theory. But somehow this one feels very different [View All]

[coalition_unwilling]

from the models offered by theory and history. To wit, most economists say the Great Recession began in December of 2007. However, at the time, the national unemployment rate was still low by historical standards (not exactly full employment but certainly not > 8%). Only as the recession continued did the unemployment rate start to creep higher. So I would say that, this time is different, because employment has been a lagging indicator by historical standards.

I've seen talk elsewhere on DU that the shift from a manufacturing economy to a consumerist\service sector economy accounts for this shift of employment as leading\lagging indicator.

I'm still chewing on the phenomoneon and data, so this is just a feeling for now. But I'd be interested to hear your take on it.