Democratic Underground - it was a forecast, and also in some monthly stats

Can't find the report, but here are some articles from then about it.

Food Imports Close to Matching Level of Exports, Report Says
By ELIZABETH BECKER

Published: November 24, 2004

Next year, for the first time in nearly five decades, the United States could import as much food as it exports, the Department of Agriculture said. Until now, the United States exported more food than it imported. One out of every three acres in the United States is planted for export and agriculture has been one of the few economic sectors that produced a predictable trade surplus.

But in a revised quarterly report issued this week, the Agriculture Department predicted that in 2005 the imports of farm products would equal exports, which are estimated at $56 billion. Foreign competition and record crop production in the United States, which pushed down world prices for grains, oilseeds and cottons, were blamed for the drop in export sales from the record of $62.3 billion set in this fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 30.

With the United States trade deficit deepening, reaching 5 percent of the gross domestic product in its fullest expression, this forecast was unwelcome news.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/24/business/24farm.html

The U.S. Ag Trade Balance. . . More Than Just A Number

A decade ago, a scenario in which the value of U.S. agricultural imports would someday exceed that of U.S. exports seemed farfetched. Indeed, the United States has been a net exporter of agricultural products since 1959, an uninterrupted span of 44 years. Today, the improbable has become probable. Since 1996, the agricultural trade surplus has shrunk from $27.3 billion (an all-time high) to $10.5 billion. Although U.S. agricultural exports continue to rise, imports are increasing nearly twice as fast.

The rapid growth of U.S. agricultural imports relative to exports in recent years may come as a surprise to many because the U.S. is still the world’s leading exporter of farm products. In fact, U.S. agricultural exports grew by almost $3 billion in 2003. And, higher commodity prices point to export gains in 2004. But the U.S. is also the world’s largest agricultural importer. Over the last 7 years, U.S. agricultural imports have increased by more than $13 billion, from $32 billion in 1996 to $46 billion in 2003. Agricultural economists Philip Paarlberg and Phil Abbott, both at Purdue University, predict that, if these trends continue, the current agricultural trade surplus will turn into a deficit toward the end of the decade. This forecast is consistent with ERS analysis of U.S. import and export trends.

http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:ggsz5SLUrm8J:www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/February04/Features/USTradeBalance.htm+food+imports+exports+usda+2004+deficit&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us

Economists: U.S. on verge of becoming net agricultural importer

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – For more than 40 years the United States has exported more agricultural products than it has imported. That could change within a few years, said two Purdue University agricultural economists.

The gap between American export and import values is narrowing, said economists Phil Paarlberg and Phil Abbott. They predict imports could overtake exports by 2007, if current trends continue.

U.S. agricultural exports are projected to climb by $500 million in the coming fiscal year, which begins in October, to $56.5 billion. Imports are estimated to jump as much as $3.5 billion in 2003-04.

"What we've seen in the last several years is that agricultural exports have been relatively flat in real dollars while imports have been rising quite rapidly, even through our so-called recession," Paarlberg said. "A couple of years back imports were $41 billion, and last year they were $45 billion. We expect them in the coming year to climb to $47 billion or $48 billion.

http://news.uns.purdue.edu/UNS/html4ever/030919.Paarlberg.imports.html

U.S. Food Imports Now Exceed Exports

THE AGRIBUSINESS EXAMINER
November 10, 2004, Issue #379
Monitoring Corporate Agribusiness
From a Public Interest Perspective

SCOTT KILMAN, WALL STREET JOURNAL (11/8/04): America's appetite for imported food is creating problems for the U.S. economy.

Agriculture, one of the few big sectors of the economy that could be counted
on to produce trade surpluses, has recently generated monthly deficits --- a
development that could worsen the nation's already significant trade
imbalance.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. imported more
agricultural goods than it exported in June and August, the first monthly
trade deficits since 1986, when the Farm Belt was mired in a depression.

http://www.organicconsumers.org/corp/exports111204.cfm

Reply #188: it was a forecast, and also in some monthly stats [View All]