Reply #6: There are some indications it IS working... [View All]

[cynatnite]

Less US deaths, less Iraqi deaths from death squads and all that, less suicide and car bombs....

The question is can it be sustained without the need for excess troops. Past experience in Iraq shows that when US troops move in, insurgents and Al Qaeda move out, lay low and patiently wait them out until it's safe to come out of the woodwork. Then they come out and resume business as usual.

The only true test to see if the surge is working is to withdraw troops to pr-surge levels and see if the number of deaths stay the same or rise. My guess is that they're biding their time and will resume their paths of death and destruction as before.