7. Keep in mind rank and file Dems and Republcans--ordinary
citizens do not think like Activists.
They are much more willing to cut Candidates some slack.
Activists in both parties are much more informed and therefore look at each minute detail and conclude--Oh this will sink him or her.
Now do not throw things at me but rank and file Republicans are more committed to the Party. Therefore, they are much more forgiving of their candidates. Likewise, because they believe in their party they are more apt to attack and destroy anyone who gets in the way of their party.
Therefore, Gjuilliani or Rommney are the ones to beat. Exception: If Romney and Guilliani desttoy each other then MCCain moves ahead and is the candidate. There is still a chance that MCCain will be the GOP Candidate.
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