Reply #13: No, I don't [View All]

[rmgarrette64]

Chavez could cut all exports from Venezuela, and that would indeed raise the price of oil. At the same time, it would hurt his country, and especially him.

I do not think he could cut off exports just to the U.S. Sure, he can find other buyers - like China - and not sell to the U.S. But then China won't be buying as much from its current suppliers, who in turn will sell more to the U.S., as they also like making money. It is possible this action would cause a marginal increase in the price of oil, but it's also possible it wouldn't.

In short, no, I don't take this particular threat seriously.

Now, attacking Iran would upset shipments from the Middle East, to be sure. Especially if it turns into a regional conflagration. That would certainly increase the cost per barrel, and I have no idea at all how high it would go.