Reply #6: The bourse is BS. [View All]

[Toucano]

Let's look at the facts:

1. Stories about the bourse seldom if ever appear in the U.S. media.

2. The rest of the world, having a low opinion of the U.S., is inclined to believe this would-be-real reason for the coming invasion. It's so plausible, people panic and oil prices go upward.

3. Who do you suppose benefits from increasing oil prices? I think we all know the answer to that one. Add a little saber-rattling and anti-Israel comments from Iran and guess what? It goes even HIGHER.

4. China buys oil from Iran. China sells goods to the U.S. China has no desire to wreck the economy of it's fattest customer.

5. Buying oil in euros is unattractive to everyone, given the current standing of the dollar. Iran's major trading partners are Japan, China, Italy, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea, Germany, France, UAE, and Russia. Five of those would have to buy euros to buy oil from Iran. That would mean they would have to sell more goods to the United States so their dollars would buy more euros to buy the same amount of oil. Remember, the U.S. economy, in this scenario, is in the shitter.

6. Japan and China alone hold 930 billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds. And their holdings have been going up, not down. I'm sure they'd just LOVE to see that lose value overnight. Add in the other Iranian trading partners and you're looking at 1.19 trillion $ invested in U.S. Treasury bonds.

7. While the rest of the world would probably like to put U.S. power in check by crushing the dollar, they're not going to do it at such an incredible cost to the global economy. Talk about cutting your nose to spite your face!


I'm not sure if this story is psych ops or just back-handed manipulation of the price of oil, but I know it's fishy.



The bottom line: As long as the United States is the largest consumer of oil, it's going to decide the terms of the oil trade. The U.S. is the world's customer and the customer is always right.