Reply #11: I also figured it out about a year ago, myself: [View All]

[nealmhughes]

Saddam threatened to become a New Arab Napoleon, spreading secular ideas of government, threatening the monarchies at their core: a non-religious government, and a nationalized oil industry, with the profits spread out through the Arab world.

The worst thing Saddam could have done is to turn the taps on full blast, letting the magical mystical "market price" plumet with him using the old "bulk discount" formula of price reduction.

The Arabs of the Peninsula are well aware that their windfall from the 20s to now are going to be only a Century of profits. That is why Iran is dangerous, as is Hugo.

A fragmented Iraq is no threat to anyone but fellow Iraqis. US/UK/SA bases stabilize the Gulf for shipping and for the oil production zones. NOT BAGHDAD! Baghdad doesn't count. Why would they care about the Kurds if it weren't for their oil? They aren't Arabs. Most aren't that religious, anyhow.

There is a reason Dubai is building itself up to be the New Hong Kong, and it isn't because they like modern architecture. When the oil runs out, unless it has been wisely invested, the people go back to being herdsmen with a few oases for light agriculture. I don't think they will like that. The genie of air conditioning, Chinese restaurants, and electricity has been let loose, along with eradication of famine, death in childbirth, etc.