Slate: Election Scorecard - Midterm Update Favors Demorcrats [View All]

[Coexist]

Slate has some interesting information about recent polls concerning where the country will be headed come November. There are some great graphics, charts and sidebars to this article, so head on over to get the full picture. After reading this, I still feel confident, but I would hate to see a momentum shift come October. We know they have a some dirty tricks up their sleeve - it is really important we stay far enough ahead in the polls to balance whatever feces they decide to fling next month. The fact that Santorum is beginning to "catch up" is a sobering thought.

Things still look good for us, however, we can't expect to coast in on the lead we have - this is just gearing up. We need to stay in full battle mode until this is over.

Election Scorecard:Where the midterm elections stand today.

THE SENATE:

Senate Race Summary for Sept. 21:
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In Maryland, a new automated poll from SurveyUSA shows Republican Michael Steele continuing to gain ground in his race with Democrat Ben Cardin. The latest poll shows Steele with a statistically insignificant one-point lead (48 percent to 47 percent). While we continue to rate Maryland as lean Democrat, this new poll shifts the momentum meter in Steele's favor.

For now, Pennsylvania and Maryland are the exceptions. Our national momentum meter continues to point to the Democrats.

THE HOUSE:

House Race Summary for Sept. 19:
So, the bottom line is that this new poll might be the start of a trend or just aberrant noise. For now, we're sticking with the more conservative estimate of our five-poll model that shows the average Democratic lead is closer among likely voters (six points) than among registered voters (nine points).

GOVERNORS:

Governors' Race Summary for Sept. 18:
Three new polls from Iowa shift our classification of the governor's race from lean Democrat to tossup. Our last five-poll average now shows Democrat Chet Culver leading Republican Jim Nussle by an average of less than two percentage points (42.6 percent to 41.2 percent). That thin average nearly matches the Des Moines Register poll released yesterday, which showed both candidates tied at 44 percent each.