Reply #10: Gallup is sloppy,... [View All]

[Captain Hilts]

but it's true Republicans have much higher turnout. So, there's a logic to what Gallup is doing. In the 2000 election their partisan breakdown would sway over 5% from day to day. So, when they polled 7% more Republicans Bush would be up by 7%. The next day it would be majority Democrats and Gore would lead by that margin. As a result, overnight they were reporting 15% swings in the results. Sloppy.

Despite all the Rock the Vote and UTube and Eminem publicity last election, only 17% of those under 30 voted. 17%.

Democratic constituencies with low turnout:
The poor
Minorities
People under 30
Women under 30.

So, while this might not be a great way to balance data, there is a logic to what they do and they are consistent.