Ignatius: Iranians want dialogue with US, expect peaceful end to crisis [View All]

[BurtWorm]

David Ignatius in the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/29/AR2006082901044.html

With a Thursday deadline looming on the nuclear issue, you might expect that Tehran would feel like a garrison town. But it's surprisingly relaxed, and I think that's because most Iranians expect the crisis will be defused somehow. The regime has been putting on a show of defiance as the U.N. deadline approaches, shooting off new missiles in Persian Gulf war games, opening a new heavy-water reactor and festooning downtown streets with banners of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader, Hasan Nasrallah. But this isn't a militarized country, and it certainly isn't eager for confrontation with America.

"I don't think anyone can think of a way to resolve problems between the U.S. and Iran other than negotiations," says Ali Ahmadi, a 28-year-old writer at the opposition newspaper Sharq. Though he's critical of Ahmadinejad, he describes the technical achievements of Iran's nuclear program as "really satisfying," and he sums up Iran's dilemma this way: "We are watching how much it's worth to continue the nuclear program -- its price. I can see there is this ambivalence, this concern. Because people realize this choice can bring about certain harsh consequences."

Perhaps the most interesting fact of life in Tehran this week is that you can't find anyone who is opposed in principle to dialogue with the United States. Even a few months ago, that topic was almost taboo, but now here's Ahmadinejad himself calling for a public debate with Bush. "The golden key to being popular here is to normalize relations with the U.S.," says Shahriar Khateri, a former member of the Revolutionary Guards who is now a doctor and a participant in a joint project with American scientists to study the effects of chemical weapons.

Iranians are patient people, and they seem to expect this crisis will play out a while longer. They don't want sanctions, but people I talked to don't seem very worried about them, either. Iranians have been living under some form of sanctions for several decades, and they've learned how to make their own cars, steel and pharmaceuticals -- and now missiles and nuclear reactors.

I come back to the fierce jockeying of Tehran's traffic jams. If Ahmadinejad behaves like most local drivers, he will go as far and fast as he can. It's only when the fender is about to be crushed that he will put on the brake. That's why this crisis is so dangerous -- it's easy to miscalculate when nobody knows the rules of the road.