Does the 9/11 anniversary really help Bush's ratings? (Data and Evidence) [View All]

[bluestateguy]

There seems to be a CW here that the 9/11 anniversary always gives Baby Bush's numbers a little bump. But does that hypothesis hold up under scrutiny? I decided to take a look at compilations of his post September 11 approval ratings for the years 2002-2005. The polls here are from CBS News/NYT, Gallup/USA Today/CNN, Zogby, PEW, Newsweek, Fox, AP/Ipsos, Harris, ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/WSJ. In each case I have taken the most immediate pre-911 poll for the given year for each news organization/pollster and juxtaposed it with the most immediate post 9/11 poll for the year, for that news organization.

Data taken from: http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob1.htm and http://www.pollingreport.com/bushjob2.htm

2002


CBS 63% 66%
Gallup 66% 70%
Zogby 63% 63%
PEW 63% 67%
Newsweek 61% 70%
Fox 66% 65%
AP 65% 66%
Harris 63% 68%
ABC 71% 67%
NBC 64% 63%

Net: +2.0%

2003

CBS 55% 52%
Gallup 52% 50%
Zogby 45% 50%
PEW 56% 55%
Newsweek 53% 52%
Fox 58% 50%
AP 52% 55%
Harris 57% 59%
ABC 56% 58%
NBC 56% 49%

Net: -1.0%

2004

CBS 50% 50%
Gallup 52% 52%
Zogby 47% 47%
PEW 46% 44%
Newsweek 53% 52%
Fox* 49% 50%
AP# 52% 54%
Harris 48% 45%
ABC 52% 50%
NBC 47% 47%

Net: -0.5%

2005

CBS 42% 41%
Gallup 45% 46%
Zogby 40% 43%
PEW 40% 40%
Newsweek 38% 40%
Fox 45% 41%
AP 39% 40%
Harris 40% 34%
ABC 45% 42%
NBC 46% 40%

Net: -1.3%

Conclusion

The overall 9/11 anniversary effect has been negligible for Bush's popularity since 2002. There was a small increase in his approval ratings during the one year anniversary in 2002, but even this was within the margin of error. In subsequent years the movement in his polling numbers has been even more negligible, falling within the margin of error, either positive or negative.

*The Fox samples for September, 2004 were of "likely voters"
#The AP post 9/11 sample for 2004 was for "likely voters"