Reply #7: Nasrallah May Well Be Looking For A Way Out, Sir [View All]

[The Magistrate]

His game requires that he emerge from this without too much harm to his core cadre, and that is certainly taking uncomfortable casualties in the infantry fighting in the southern hills. It is in the nature of irregular forces that actual battle, as opposed to mere ambushcade, inflicts disproportionate casualties on leadership elements and the most ardent spirits among the fighters, and too great a loss among these can greatly degrade the over-all strength of the armed organization. Still, his own posture and pretensions require that he commit his men in this way to oppose the Israelis, or else he must to some degree discredit his claim to being the champion and defender of Arabs against Israeli power.

A distinction must be drawn, when considering organizations like this, between mass popularity and political support on the one hand, and actual competent gun-men on the other. An increase in strength of the former does not necessarily translate to an increased strength of the latter. Hezbollah is picky about who it accepts as a gun-man, and those who are accepted are thoroughly trained and groomed to their office. They have had years of practice and discipline without much of anything in the way of casualties, and replacing losses to rebuild the force to the same standard established in this time may be more difficult than many seem to suppose.

To cease firing rockets, albeit in exchange for a cessation of the Israeli aerial assault, might reduce the willingness of the Israeli populace to back its government's total effort in this matter, since it would render the civilian population safe from immediate harm in any degree.