Reply #5: But, realistically, [View All]

[rodbailey]

can you see Hillary dropping out after June 3, unless she loses every primary left? She will probably take IN by a little (3-5% is my guess), lose NC; win KY and WV; lose OR and MT; win PR. I think I've left a couple out. She'll be down by maybe 100 in pledged delegates; still arguing that if you count the popular votes in MI and FL then she is ahead in popular vote. There will probably be at least 200 still uncommitted super delegates, so neither one will have the delegate count to win as of June 3 when the primaries are over. If Dean and others can pressure all the supers to declare by the end of June (which is the other thing he has been saying should happen) then, if the majority of them went to Obama, he would probably have enough votes to win on the first ballot. On the other hand, there are the John Edwards delegates (20 some, I think) who he has not released; and there may be enough super delegates who don't want to declare by Dean's deadline which will keep this thing going.

In the meantime, of course, our effort will be flooding the super delegates with letters telling them to sit out the first ballot and then draft Gore on the second ballot. KEEP THE FAITH!!