Reply #2: Pats and Bears [View All]

[never cry wolf]

http://actasports.com/sows.php
Who will win the NFL Conference Championships?

January 17, 2007

There's a system that I've been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better. I explained the system last year when, for the first time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks. If you want to learn more about the system, read last year's Super Bowl Stat of the Week, Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?

This system has only been used for the Super Bowl, but Mike Murphy at WSCR (sports talk radio in Chicago) asked me to try it out for the Conference Championships. Just the for the fun of it, I did. Here are the results for each game.

For the AFC Championship:
Category Team with Advantage
Points Scored Colts
Points Allowed Patriots
Point Differential Patriots
Fewer Net Passing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards / Attempt Colts
Opponent Net Passing Yards Colts
Opponent Rushing Yards Patriots
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Patriots
Opponent Total Yards / Game Patriots
Turnover Differential Patriots
Regular Season Record Tie

Patriots take eight categories and the Colts only three. The AFC #4 seeded Patriots look to be in the Super Bowl yet again (third time in four years!) with a road win against the #3 seeded Colts.

For the NFC Championship:
Category Team with Advantage
Points Scored Bears
Points Allowed Bears
Point Differential Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards Bears
Rushing Yards Bears
Rushing Yards / Attempt Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards Saints
Opponent Rushing Yards Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game Bears
Turnover Differential Bears
Regular Season Record Bears

Wow, that is a huge advantage for the Bears, eleven categories to one. Looking at all 40 Super Bowls, the only perfect season in NFL history, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, had the only perfect 12-0 tally on the predictor system. The other four teams winning 11 categories on the predictor system (including the 1985 Bears) also all won the Super Bowl. As a huge Bears fan I sure hope this Super Bowl predictor system works for the NFC Championship this year!