Belichick made the correct decision, according to AdvancedNFLStats.com [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

This is similar opinion to what I've posted in other threads, here and in the Lounge and on other sites. It's a glaring case of conventional wisdom proposing one truth, while knowledge of math and probability screams that the minority opinion is actually correct. I was forced to understand bottom line realities like this, or be swallowed by Las Vegas sportsbooks.

It would be interesting to read Nate Silver's view, although he's more of a baseball guy, not football.

BTW, I think AdvancedNFLStats.com is actually underreporting the advantage of going for it. They adjust the typical NFL percentage upward in terms of Manning's likelihood to score a TD, but they don't boost Brady's odds of converting the 4th and 2. I estimated 1/3 favorite in the other threads and I'll stick with that, although it might be a touch high. This site is using 60% as a generic number, which is too low considering it's Brady/Moss/Welker:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

"With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."