Reply #10: Correct [View All]

[Nederland]

No one polls one precinct. However, the percentage of precincts polled in my example far exceeds the percentage polled in the 2004 election. I have therefore demonstrated that it is perfectly possible for exit polls to fall way outside the simplistic MOE calculation that TIA asserts without violating any of the laws of statistics. I haven't proved that is what happened, I have merely proved that it is possible. For now, the only question I have for you is whether or not you believe my final assertion, namely:

Regardless of your sample size, if your sample is not representative of the total population, exit poll results can be outside the MOE.

If you agree with this great--we can argue about the implications in Part II. If not, please tell me why because you haven't so far.