Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount System vs. New York Lever System: 2000-2008 (TIA) - x [View All]

[tiptoe]

Full Article

Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount System  vs.  New York Lever System: 2000-2008

TruthIsAll     source: richardcharnin.com/OregonVsNYVoting.htm

March 29, 2010

Oregon defied the many battleground and heavily Democratic states in which Bush increased recorded vote share from 2000. Oregon's 13.6% exit poll discrepancy in 1992 and 10.2% uncounted vote rate in 1996 may have had something to do with the 1998 decision to switch to mail-in ballots. Oregon’s recorded vote-count shares closely approximated the National True Vote in 2000, 2004 and 2008. Was it because the voting-and-recounts were done exclusively by mail-and-hand and not by machine?

 

2004

 

2004

 

2000

 

2004

'Battleground state' OREGON

OR PHONE SURVEY Share (±3.2% MoE)

Kerry
52.2

Bush
46.3

 
 

Margin
+5.9

 
 

 

OR VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
51.35

Bush
47.19

 
 

Margin
+4.16

Swing
 

Gore
46.96

Bush
46.52

Nader
5.04

 
+0.44

+3.7%
 

 

 DISCREPANCY (%)

 Margin Δ

PhoneSurvey - VoteCount

+1.74%

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

< MoE

Oregon Voting System Advantages

• Vote exclusively by mail-in ballots: '04=86.5% '08=85.7%
  
• Each general election: post-election handcount of random-selected precincts
  
• Partial/full hand-recounts check optical scanner tallies
  
• "No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two."

Oregon Facts:

• Gore 2000:
  .44% OR VoteCount margin VERY NEAR .52% National
  
• Kerry 2004:
  4.2% OR VoteCount margin was a NEAR MATCH to 5% unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate. Compare to Kerry -2.5% National Recorded Vote-Count margin deficit
  
• Obama 2008:
  56.7% OR VoteCount share a NEAR MATCH to 57.1% OR TrueVote model. Compare 52.9% National Recorded share vs his 58.0% National TrueVote model

 

Solid 'Democratic state' NEW YORK

NY EXIT POLL Share (± 2-3% MoE)

Kerry
64.5

Bush
34.0

 
 

Margin
+30.5

 
 

 

NY VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
58.37

Bush
40.08

Nader
1.35

Margin
+18.29

Swing
 

Gore
60.21

Bush
35.23

Nader
3.58

 
+24.98

-6.7%
 

 

 DISCREPANCY ( WPD ) (%)

 Margin Δ

ExitPoll - VoteCount

+12.2 %

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

>2 x MoE

New York Voting System Vulnerabilities:

• Defective levers in the most democratic precincts – undercount votes
  
• Too few levers in Democratic precincts – long lines
  
• Pre-set levers stuck on Bush – discourage voters
  
• Late provisional and absentee paper ballots not counted on Election Day
  
• Lever totals input to PROGRAMMABLE central tabulators
  
• No hand recounts – there are no paper ballots to count (except for late votes)

New York Facts:

• 2000-2008:
  Democratic late (paper ballot) vote-share 7% higher than E-Day (lever) and matched the unadjusted exit polls
  
• Gore 2000:
  25% recorded marg (60-35%)– 2% exitpoll discrepancy
  
• Kerry 2004:
  18% recorded marg (58-40%)–12% exitpoll discrepancy
  
• Obama 2008:
  27% recorded marg (63-36%)–exit polls not released

 

NATIONAL  Exit Polls  &  Recorded Vote-Counts –  Prelim NEPs  vs  Final NEPs

PRELIM NEP, 13K Random Selection  .86% MoE

Kerry
 50.8 

Bush
48.2

Nader
1.0

Margin
+2.6

 

Final NEP – IMPOSSIBLE  forced match of VoteCount

Kerry
48

Bush
51

 
 

Margin
-3.0

 

Recorded VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
48.27

Bush
50.73

Nader
0.38

Margin
-2.46

Swing
 

Gore
48.38

Bush
47.87

Nader
2.73

 
+0.52

-3.0%
 

 

 

 DISCREPANCY (%)

 Margin Δ

 

12:22a Prelim NEP - VoteCount

+5.1 %

 

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

3 x MoE

• If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of
   returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
• Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count,
   then the official national Recorded VOTE-COUNT must also be impossible.
• Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs
   must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.

As a battleground state, it is to be expected that Oregon closely matches the national electorate. Since it votes 100% by mail, and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote-counts, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the True Vote.  This is confirmed by the following facts:

...

• Do you believe:
  
  a) 
  the 2008 Oregon vote ( 56.7% ) reflected Obama’s True national share ( 58.0% ),  or
  
  
  b) 
  the national recorded vote-count share ( 52.9% ) for Obama?
  
  
  Did fraud cut Obama’s margin by 13.0 million (from 22.5 to 9.5 million)?

...
Now consider New York.

In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2–35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote-count margin declined to 18.3% (58.4–40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5–34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?

Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):

Gore won Kings Cty (Brooklyn)

by 74.7–15.0%.  Kerry won it by 74.2–22.8%, an  8.3% LOWER margin.

Gore won Multnomah

by 63.5–28.2%.  Kerry won it by 71.6–27.4%, an  8.9% HIGHER margin.

It’s an Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations. Except for Oregon — the ONLY 100% mail-in paper ballot and hand-recount state.

Consider that ...

Full Article