THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 4 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00 [View All]

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THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 4 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00








A new poll in North Carolina begins to show the Barr effect. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr is polling at 6% in North Carolina, while McCain polls at 43% and Obama polls at 40%. We will begin showing Barr on our pie charts this coming Friday with the full weekly update. Our indices showed no change today (give it a few days!) but my own electoral vote projection for Obama jumped seven to 296 today, partially because of the North Carolina poll, and partially due to an increase in strength of projection.

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Full Weekly Tracking
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What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ No changes today. Blue is blue and red is red.



^ The WEA total should begin to go north in the coming days!



^ All three indices show Obama gaining in electoral votes today. EV.com now has Obama winning in Missouri, but a quick look at that poll shows EV.com's Missouri poll might have a typo. McCain's 43 should be 48. Once they discover the typo, we can expect EV.com's Obama count to go back down by 11.


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^ This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average