Reply #5: Kerry was very far ahead [View All]

[Nicholas_J]

Right aftrer the media attention he was getting for doing so well in the nomination process, and then when the boost from this dropped, Bush got ahead in N.H. in the polls, but now Kerry is starting to come out more in public again and the polls are reversing. I think we are going to see a considerable number of reversals with Bush leading for a while as the media pay attention to him on certain issues, and then Kerry coming ahead at other times.

I was fairly sure that the polls would reverse as a result ot the 9/11 hearing and other questions about Iraq, but it seems that the polls do not respond quickly to events, so far, it seems to take about a month for any negative disclosure to percolate through public opinion and then effect polling behavior.

It is nice to see California coming in as a solid Blue State now rather than a lening towards Kerry state. They base this on a candidate remaining more than ten point ahead in the majority of polls for a state for more than 3 months and Kerry just had one the largest win over Bush in polls in that state so far, in the Latest LA Times Poll. Kerry 53 percent, Bush 41 percent. He has been in double digits. He has had double digit leads over Bush in California since he won the Iowa Caucus.