Reply #27: Demographics likely to favor Clinton, but caucus to favor Obama [View All]

[seybor]

Michigan actually looks more like a Hillary state - poor/underemployed, large union vote, most focused on the harsh realities of an economy in which nearly 10% are unemployed.
That said, I will concede that in a caucus Obama stands a chance of beating her soundly. It's a sad statement, though, because it would likely have a lot to do with the barriers to access to Clinton's base who, per exit polls, tend more often to be:
- skilled hourly workers who tend to have little flexibility at work
- women, who tend to have more issues with childcare
- poor and elderly who tend to have more issues with transportation
Conversely, Obama has tremendous support among college students and college educated professionals. I fall into the latter category, and I definitely enjoy the benefits a flexible salaried position and access to high-quality childcare.

I actually find the notion of a caucus very romantic. Bringing people together for debate is so richly democratic.

Unfortunately, given issues of access (many of which are the same barriers to healthcare, education, healthy groceries) - particularly in a state like Michigan with such a huge number of shift workers - I think in practice it would be undemocratic.