Mark Penn's analysis of why Gore lost....looking back at 2000 in light of Penn's Venezuela polling. [View All]

[madfloridian]

Yesterday I posted this article about Mark Penn's company and the polls they do around the world. This month they did one in Venezuela, which apparently did not reflect how things were really going for Chavez.

Penn, Schoen & Berland, Mark Penn a pollster for Hillary. Just in Venezuela.

It is pretty long but here is a paragraph that bothered me.

"Penn, Schoen and Berland (PSB) has played a pioneering role in the use of polling operations, especially "exit polls," in facilitating coups. Its primary mission is to shape the perception that the group installed into power in a targeted country has broad popular support...the deployment of polling agencies' "exit polls" broadcast on international television...give the false impression of massive vote-fraud by the ruling party, to put targeted states on the defensive."(4)

I was doing a further search today and found this write-up by Mark Penn from 2000 about why Gore lost. I give him a few of his points, but this paragraph is just wrong.

http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=179&contentid=2922

Instead of running as a New Economy Democrat, Al Gore used an old-style populism that reduced his appeal rather than expanded it. The message prevented him from reaching the swing voters who could have pushed him over the top. Gore narrowly won the popular vote with this message by piling up large wins in states like California, where extra votes fail to count. But the message sent him tumbling backward in key border states, in his home state and, finally, in the electoral college. Liberal positions on social issues along with populism and big government positions took what could have been a substantial win and turned it into a draw. Had Gore combined his positions of conscience on social issues with a new vision of the role of government, he would have carried a larger percentage of upwardly mobile, socially tolerant suburban men that would have helped him win.

In what world is half a million votes considered "narrowly winning"? I believe Gore's own Democrats let him down when it came to standing up on the recount. Not on the surface, but covertly. And Gore's emerging "populism" was getting attention that was good, not bad.

This paragraph, the last one in the article shows either terrible or deliberate misjudgement on Penn's part. His take on Bush's character is way off the mark.

Now the tables are turned, and it is Bush who must reach out to Gore's voters to build a new coalition of support or he will fail in governing. Bush must now put together a coalition greater than the 48 percent he received. The voters Bush needs to reach are the DLC Democrats -- concerned about the size of government, but firmly committed to progress on major issues like health care, education, family, and crime. They want government that will give people the tools they need to succeed in the 21st century. They are looking for a president and Congress that will continue the job started by President Clinton.

Uh, Mark, hate to break this to you. He did not even reach out to you guys, now did he?

I have often wondered if companies like Penn, Schoen & Berland, who work with polling overseas...do the same here.

Last week, Mr. Schoen, of Penn, Schoen & Berland, released the findings of his latest survey on the Venezuelan evening news. As expected, Penn's survey showed that Chavez's opposition, Manuel Rosales, was nearly tied in the polls with Chavez. Chavez, it showed, had only 48% support, and his opponent Manuel Rosales had gained significantly up to 42%. This poll is now being reported across all the major Venezuelan media, to a huge audience, showing that Rosales was gaining more and more everyday, and could possibly win. Mr. Schoen added his personal opinion, "The momentum is clearly with Rosales."(10) With the help of the mainstream media, almost all of which is vehemently opposed to the popular president, these fake polls have reached a wide audience."

From Upside Down World.
http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/503/1

The Miami Herald also carried an article on this polling last week:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/16151906.htm

"CARACAS - A sudden change in the management team of a U.S.-based polling firm working for opponents of President Hugo Chávez has raised eyebrows on the eve of presidential elections today."