Doing some research on state average gas prices and endangered Republicans [View All]

[Gman]

and there are some interesting things appearing. My hypothesis is that gas prices are declining faster than the national average according to how endangered Republican Senators are and/or the danger of losing Republican seats. I would also expect gas prices to be going down faster than the national average if there is a better than average chance that the Democrat incumbent Senator or congressperson can be beat.

So I first looked at Virginia. Maccaca Allen is losing ground to Webb. So how do gas prices look?
Interesting that gas prices in VA are declining faster than the national average (red line).

So what about Pennsylvania? Dog Boy Santorrum is in big trouble. And, there are four congressional races that are rated toss-up or lean Dem at mydd.com. They are: PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10.



This time the US average is in Green. This one is strange. If the hypothesis is true, it would appear the GOP has written off Philly. So what's up with Philly? Is Philly a predominantly Democratic city? PA-06, 08 are north of Philly. PA-10 appears to be eastern PA. PA-7 appears to be Southeastern PA. I wonder what gas prices are doing in these areas. Are gas prices an issue in these areas?

Let's move on.

How about Tennessee and the seat Bill Fhrist is vacating? This is one the GOP absolutely has to win to keep control of the Senate. So what are gas prices doing in TN?

Hmmmm.... again, in a state the GOP has to win in, gas prices are declining faster than the national average. Isn't that special?

Let's look at one more. How about Missouri where Mr. Talent has got a real fight on his hand. Washington Post's Chris Cillizza says "There may be no Senate race in the country -- with the possible exception of Pennsylvania -- that is drawing as much national attention and interest as this one." Cillizza says Talent really should win this one due to his base in St. Louis. So is big oil doing its part to help Mr. Talent and preserve torture and abuse of prisoners? Let's see:



Again, the US average is in green. Whoa! Those blue and red lines are plunging like a whore of Babylon on her way to hell! The decline in gas prices this time is much faster than the national average. Just a little insurance to be sure Mr. Talent has no problems.

Ok, just one more. How about the great state of Ohio? This is a state that we have been assured repeatedly that the GOP represents God and there are no stolen elections. So why then are gas prices decling so much faster than the national average when they have matched the national average for the last year?

This is shaping up to be a disasterous year for the GOP in OH and that graph speaks for itself.

But what about states where the Republican Senator is safe or there are no crucial House races or even where the Democratic Senator is safe?

How about California? CA is a good reliable blue state. Dianne Feinstein doesn't appear to be having any trouble getting reelected and there are no crucial close congressional races. About the only thing at all about California this year is whether the Schwartz will get reelected. And any real true Republican knows the Schwartz is a RINO. So what would we expect gas prices to be doing in California with all its cars and freeways being driven by Al-Queda supporting Democrats?

Once again we see the USA average in green. So is California crucial to the Republican Party this year? Sure doesn't appear so.

What about Massachusets? None other than Ted Kennedy his self is up for reelection. And there are no congressional races crucial to the GOP. So, how are gas prices doing in MA?

Right at the national average. No one's doing MA any favors.

Surely this is all a tinfoil hat generated conspiracy theory. Well, what about West Virginia? Senator Byrd has a comfortable 30 point lead. Is WV being forsaken by Big Oil?

This time the US average is in blue. Not dramatic, but the WV average is about 10-12 cents below the national average. Makes me wonder what's going on in the Congressional races. There are 2 Democratic incumbents and 1 Republican incumbent.

Let's go out West again. What about the very blue state of Washington? Surely Big Oil is taking care of all those good Democrats in Washington State. Or are they?

The USA average is the blue line. Maria Cantwell is safe. Chris Bowers at mydd.com shows WA-08 as a tossup but with a comment that says there are conflicting polls and this should be a solid Democratic seat. So, gas prices are higher than the national average in the blue state of Washington.

Here's an interesting one: Arizona. John Kyl the incumbent R Senator will likely have no problem getting reelected. But the jerk JD Hayworth is in a race that's closer than it should be as far as Hayworth is concerned. Hayworth represents AZ-05 which is the area just east and northeast of Phoenix and within Maricopa county. So what would we expect to see? How about higher prices than the national average for all but the Phoenix area?

The US average is the green line. Voila! Is somebody cutting Phoenix area residents a break on gas prices so they won't be pissed when they walk into the voting booth? Granted the difference is less than 10 cents. I think the argument here really is that nothing really special is being done in AZ because there are no really endangered Republicans.

That's 10 charts or 20% of all the states, not necessarily chosen at random, but chosen based on whether or not there are crucially close and/or endangered Republicans. Check it out yourself: Gas price charts were obtained at GasBuddy.com. Check it out yourself. Look at Colorado where there's no Senate race. The only race that's close that shouldn't be close is CO-04 where the incumbent R, Musgrave will probably win in spite of his self.

Or look back east like at Georgia. Georgia has no Senate race this year and no close House races. This is one of the few that buck the trend:

But more often than not, it is somewhat predictable that in a state like North Carolina where there is no US Senate race nor are there any statewide races, the trend looks fairly close to the national average:


I don't think any of this is completely conclusive. In general, gasoline prices are declining. The decline in gasoline prices in Canada parallels that in the US.

But in general, it appears that prices are declining in some states faster than the national average and that just coincidentally, some of those states are crucial to the GOP this year.