Big Batch of Rating Changes Reflects Stronger Democratic Breeze [View All]

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Big Batch of Rating Changes Reflects Stronger Democratic Breeze

By Bob Benenson 18 minutes ago

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The ratings changes below include summaries of the reasoning behind each switch. Stories containing more detailed explanations will follow in the coming days.

p>Nevada
• New rating: Safe Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

New Mexico
• New rating:Safe Democratic
• Old rating:Democrat Favored

Rhode Island
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
Lincoln Chafee, the least conservative of the 55 Republican senators, is facing a two-pronged attack that seriously threatens his hold on the seat in Rhode Island, normally a Democratic stronghold. Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, who is supported by the national conservative political action organization Club for Growth, is staging a serious challenge to Chafee in the Sept. 12 primary — trying to persuade the small but conservative-leaning Republican primary electorate that Chafee veers to far to the left. And both polls and campaign cash on hand figures suggest that Chafee, if he survives the primary, would have an increasingly difficult time staving off Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, a former state attorney general who is strongly favored to win his party’s nomination.

House
Arizona 1
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating:Safe Republican

Arizona 8
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican

California 50
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating:Leans Republican

Connecticut 4
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
A popular moderate throughout most of his 19 years representing this southwestern Connecticut district in the New York City suburbs, Republican Rep. Christopher Shays (news, bio, voting record) this year faces a fight for political survival in a rematch with Democrat Diane Farrell — a former local mayor who held him to 52 percent and his smallest victory margin ever in 2004. The big issue, then as now, is Shays’ support for the war in Iraq, a dicey issue in a swing district that favored Democrat John Kerry over Bush two years ago. Bush and the war have grown even more unpopular since then, leaving Shays relying on his incumbency and reputation for integrity to pull him through.

Connecticut 5
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating:Republican Favored
Republican Nancy L. Johnson, seeking a 13th term, benefits from her clout as a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee and her generally moderate views on social issues in a district that favored Kerry for president — though just barely — two years ago. But Johnson, who won easily that year, faces a tougher political environment and a much tougher opponent in young state Sen. Chris Murphy. Though Johnson is exhibiting her typical fundraising clout, Murphy also has made a strong showing for a challenger: He had $1 million cash on hand as of June 30 to $2.6 million for the veteran incumbent.

Illinois 6
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
This district in suburbs west of Chicago is generically Republican, but that edge certainly has narrowed because of demographic changes and the national political environment. The Democrats have a strong and attention-netting candidate in Tammy Duckworth, an injured Iraq war veteran who has matched the Republican nominee, state Sen. Peter Roskam, in overall campaign receipts ($1.9 million). Duckworth is emphasizing fiscal conservatism, including an opposition to so-called spending “earmarks,” and is promoting her support for federal funding of embryonic stem cell research. But Republican officials and Roskam’s campaign say Duckworth has not staked out clear positions on some major issues and is too closely tied to Chicago Democratic strategists who recruited her and are advising her campaign.

Illinois 10
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating: Safe Republican

Minnesota 6
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican

Nebraska 1
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating: Safe Republican

Nevada 2
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

New York 20
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

New York 27
• New rating: Safe Democratic
• Old rating: Democrat Favored

Oregon 5
• New rating: Safe Democratic
• Old rating: Democrat Favored

Wisconsin 8
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

Wyoming At-Large
• New rating: Leans Republican
• Old rating: Republican Favored

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20060810/pl_cq_politics/bigbatchofratingchangesreflectsstrongerdemocraticbreeze_1