Reply #4: He won't keep 75% of those who voted for him yesterday [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

Keep in mind those people are being surveyed before knowing the result, in a very competitive race. Naturally they are going to say, of course I'll stick with the guy I just voted for minutes ago.

But he doesn't need 75% of them to win. dolstein has it about right, 35% of total Democrats will be plenty, in fact probably somewhat less than that.

Looks like the blogs and the pundits are overestimating yesterday's result in regard to impact on the likely voting tendencies and preference of the independents and Republicans in Connecticut. They will decide this race, not Democrats. Simply the reality of a split vote among two Democrats.

Connecticut is basically split 8-6-4, in terms of independents, Democrats, and Republicans. That's an easy way to remember it. So Lamont has 6 shares of 18 working in his favor. But in this case, if he loses 1/3 of that 6 to Joe, he only has 4 shares among 18. Hardly a great head start. And that leaves Lieberman with 2, with a fight for the remaining 12. Schlesinger will never get his normal split and quite a bit of that is likely to go to Lieberman and not Lamont. Who knows among independents? They voted 58-41 for Kerry in 2004. So you have Democratic leaning independents, but does that mean they'll back Lamont by that margin? I'd like to be more optimistic but unless Lieberman abandons his indy run the numbers still make him the favorite.