Reply #15: Nothing is clear in RI, not until 9/12 [View All]

[TheVirginian]

If Laffey wins the primary, Whitehouse will mop the floor with him. If Chafee wins the primary, the conservatives that are holding out on him during pre-election polling will get behind him. Right now, Chafee is trailing in the polls for two reasons: 1) solid conservatives support Laffey more than Chafee, and 2) the moderates and independents who are Chafee's base, for the most part, aren't politically active enough to care about the election this far out. If, on September 13th, Chafee is the GOP nominee, Reason #1 will be defused, as all conservatives will prefer Chafee to Whitehouse, and Reason #2 will be defused because more moderates and independents who are likely to vote for Chafee will be paying attention.

Its not a longshot for Whitehouse to win; he has a very good chance to win, actually. But he must continue to put the pressure on. Polls that show Whitehouse with a five-point lead are misleading, because that lead will almost automatically dissipate if Chafee wins the primary. Whitehouse needs to keep on the offensive, keep getting his message out, and he and his supporters need to not let up because they think they're in the lead.