Reply #24: Chafee is still the favorite [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

I can tell you that from the betting lines along with common sense. Just look at his good or excellent number of 51%. Not great but compare it to the statewide mood toward Bush, a comical 20% giving him good or excellent marks.

Republicans are not going to be masochistic enough to evict their own incumbent in a state like Rhode Island, in favor of a candidate who would be much weaker in the general election. I simply refuse to believe that. It would be like us kicking out Nelson in Nebraska. Might sound great while we're reviewing the resume of the much more progressive Democratic nominee, then you get to November and 50s turn into 30s in a hurry, and like Mickelson on 18 you wonder what the heck you were thinking.