Democratic Underground - 9/3 Election Model (Zogby effect): Kerry 290 EV, 80% Win Prob, 51% vote

9/3 Election Model (Zogby effect): Kerry 290 EV, 80% Win Prob, 51% vote [View All]

TruthIsAll

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Fri Sep-03-04 08:22 AM
Original message

9/3 Election Model (Zogby effect): Kerry 290 EV, 80% Win Prob, 51% vote

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Edited on Fri Sep-03-04 08:48 AM by TruthIsAll

The bad news:
Kerry has slipped the last two weeks. With the new Zogby poll out today (46-44 Bush), I have updated the national polling data accordingly and downloaded the latest state polling data from electoral-vote.com.

The good news:
Things are not as bad as they look. Kerry is still ahead in the 11 and 15 national poll averages by 1.5% to 2%. And he's leading in the Electoral Vote projections as well. Electoral vote.com has him behind in EV, but they don't 1) run a simulation or 2) factor in the assumed break in the undecideds.

The model provides EV's and probabilities for 50,55,60,67,75% allocation to Kerry. Take your pick. Conservative? Optimistic? Or in between?

Finally, note that the national and state models confirm each other. Both the win probabilities and national vote percentages are within a narrow 1-2% range.

It's Kerry's election to lose.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

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9/3 Election Model (Zogby effect): Kerry 290 EV, 80% Win Prob, 51% vote [View All]