Reply #34: Yes, Obama can win even if NW Iowa is McCain land [View All]

[chiefofclarinet]

NW Iowa is very low in population. The biggest city there is Sioux City, pop. 83,000. That is the fourth largest city and about 3% of population. And, Sioux City leans GOP, but is not scarlet red. The next biggest city after that is Spencer, population 11,000 and 31st largest city in the state. There are some heavy red spots in NW Iowa (Sioux County comes to mind), but it is more magenta than red.

SW Iowa isn't much better, but it's even less populated. Council Bluffs is about 60,000 people, and it's practically a suburb of Omaha, Nebraska. And the cities get tinier after that. Denison, the second biggest city there, has a whopping 7,200 people in it. It's about the size of Wasilla. And, again, it is magenta, not red.

The population is much more concentrated in Eastern Iowa. Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Waterloo, Iowa City, and Dubuque are all within the top 10 cities in Iowa and are in the Eastern third of Iowa. (Des Moines, Ames, and West Des Moines are all in the central third of the state.) And, these cities are primarily blue.

A good way to look at this is looking at our Congressional district. 5th District, represented by loony Steve King (R), covers Northwest and Southwest Iowa. 4th District is primarily North Central and South Central without Des Moines, and it is represented by Tom Latham (R). This is well over half of the state in size, yet barely 40% of the population. The other three districts, composed of Des Moines and Eastern Iowa, have Leonard Boswell (D), Bruce Braley (D), and Dave Loebsack (D). Even if 5th District goes scarlet red, which it won't, Eastern Iowa can carry it into Obama's hands.