Rasmussen, 7/24: Obama 45%, McCain 41% [View All]

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Thursday, July 24, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%.

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Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a two-point lead over George W. Bush (three points with leaners). That was down slightly from the day before when the Massachusetts Senator reached the high-water mark for his campaign heading into the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).

One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 92% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 8% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 86% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 14% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.

From a practical point of view, that means Election 2004 was all about getting out the base vote. In Election 2008, the candidates still need to make their case to a significant pool of undecided voters.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.

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