"Obama can't win and here are the numbers.." [View All]

[kentuck]

Just say, for the purpose of discussion, that Obama defeats Hillary in both the popular vote and the delegate votes. Why is it that he cannot win in the general election? Is it because he will not get the Hillary voters in the general? Of course, the assumption must be that Hillary will get all the Obama supporters if she is the nominee? That is an arrogant assumption.

But the record turnout in the Democratic primaries does not foretell what the vote count will be in the general election? If Obama and Hillary together garnered 35 million votes in the primaries, he would still need another 25-30 million to defeat John McCain in the general, assuming the Republican gets about the same number of votes that George W Bush got the last time around. Can it be done by Hillary or Obama? The truth is that we do not know.

We can only hope to persuade the Democrats to vote for our nominee and dissuade the Republicans from voting for theirs. We were not very successful the last time around, it is true. Somehow Hillary and Obama will have to find a way to triple or quadruple their primary numbers in order to be competitive in the general election - even against a weak opponent like John McCain. Looking at the stark numbers, one can see why it is so important to be united. Divided we fall, even if a large proportion of Republicans sit out the next election?

The Republicans know how to Get Out The Vote. (GOTV) It's going to be a very tough race. It is not guaranteed for either Democrat, or even, if both of them are on the ticket. It's a whole new ballgame. The primary battles will have to be put behind us and we will need to look at the very tough race ahead. Nothing is a sure bet. If you think it is, you are sure to be disappointed.