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Obama Supporters: Don't Despair. Wright isn't Fatal at all to his candidacy. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
JasonHill Donating Member (145 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-29-08 03:47 AM
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Obama Supporters: Don't Despair. Wright isn't Fatal at all to his candidacy.
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Despite these manufactured controversies predicated on a guilt-by-association, history has shown that Obama has always rebounded from them and there is no reason to assume he won't continue to do so. After the initial shock of Wright in March, Obama's numbers climbed up to pre-Wright levels less than a month later. After all the mud that has been thrown, Obama is still standing and still winning.

Wright is mostly a primary "issue". His rival for the Dem nomination, the Repub nom, and the media in general have spent much capital pushing this because of various vested interests, and he is still standing and winning. Not to say that Wright isn't newsworthy, he is for the fact that so much capital is invested into him makes him an issue, but all this hullabaloo is just pandering histrionics imo that will recede when the general arrives and the party is unified under him to push back and focus on a cohesive message. There may be a lingering impact among indie and repub whites hurting his crossover appeal, but nothing shows that this thing is any way a campaign killer either now or in the general.

Look at the Numbers: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Obama is winning by 136 total delegates. Hillary's last real chance at the nom, a needed blowout in Penn, netted her only 10 delgates.
Hillary is down by 156 pledged delegates to Obama and needs to win 69% of the remaining vote to overtake him in elected Delegates. She cannot do that.
Hillary needs 500,000 votes to overtake him in the Popular vote which doesn't have any legal baring but helps to consolidate the base under a nominee.
She cannot do that.

The only way Hillary can win is to push the remaining 295 supers to vote for her against the will of the voters as determined by ballot, which was established through the legal construct of an elected Delegate Primary process which she agreed to beforehand. The establishment as a whole, especially now with the recession of the DLC at the epicenter of the party platform, will not let the will of the voters be tossed aside to their own detriment simply for an entrenched power base that has lost much influence over the years due to a failure in creating a sustainable liberal movement (hell, even a centrist movement) which led to the rise of the Repubs controlling all 3 branches after 8 years of executive DLC triangulation.

So what i'm trying to say is cheer up! Obama is winning and will win if we remain unified. We are the only ones that can allow Hillary to override voter will by backing down to the pressure applied by her and her surrogates.
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