Why Pennsylvania Won't Matter [View All]

[FlyingSquirrel]

Current delegate counts: Obama 1647, Clinton 1508

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/





If these numbers generally hold true, giving each candidate 50% of the undecideds, we'll end up with these delegate counts:

Clinton wins PA 52.2% - 45.9% ... 84 Delegates to 74
Clinton wins IN 52.0% - 46.0% ... 38 Delegates to 34
Obama wins NC 58.7% - 39.3% ... 69 Delegates to 46

Total change by May 6:

Clinton + 168, Obama + 177

But let's say she does much better.

Give her 56% to 44% in PA: 88 Delegates to 70
Give her 54.5% to 45.5% in IN: 39 Delegates to 33
Give her 43.5% to 56.5% in NC: 50 Delegates to 65

Clinton +177, Obama +168

Ever heard the phrase, Too little, too late?

That leads to the following totals:

Clinton 1685, Obama 1815

Obama leads by 130 in the best case scenario for Hillary on May 6.

Now guess what? After that there are just 220 Pledged Delegates up for grabs, and 308 Superdelegates.

Let's say something crazy happens and Clinton wins the remaining PD's, 130 to 90.

Final Delegate Count without Undeclared Supers:

Clinton 1815, Obama 1905

Obama still wins by 90 delegates. If MI and FL were counted as-is (with Uncommitted vote in MI going to Obama), he would still be ahead by 34 delegates.

In that EXTREMELY unlikely scenario, Clinton would need to win 59.8% of the remaining undeclared Supers, vs 51.3% for Obama to clinch the nomination.

MUCH more likely, however, would be for MI and FL to remain uncounted until there is a nominee. Howard Dean has made it pretty clear that this is the outcome he prefers.

In that case, Clinton needs to overcome a minimum 90-delegate lead among 308 Supers.

So, she'd need 67.9% of them. Obama could clinch it with only 38.6% of them.

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The longer this goes on, the more people will be swayed by the math and the more Superdelegates will jump off the fence and endorse one or the other. Since all the biggest states will have voted by May 6, I expect to see a Superdelegate Landslide soon after North Carolina.