New Ras Polls show Mccain Well Ahead While Obama's ratings are starting to plummet [View All]

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http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Monday, March 17, 2008
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a six-percentage point lead over both potential Democratic opponents. McCain currently leads Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical 48% to 42% margin. McCain has a double-digit lead over Clinton among unaffiliated voters and is essentially even with Obama among those same voters. However, McCain makes greater inroads among Democrats with Obama as the nominee.

McCain has gained ground against both Democrats in recent days as stories about Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, have been widely discussed(see recent daily results). Wright is viewed favorably by just 8% of American voters and 73% consider his comments racially divisive.

The dialogue about Wright’s controversial comments appears to have had at least a short-term impact on public perceptions of Barack Obama. The Illinois Senator is viewed favorably today by just 47% of voters nationwide. That’s down five points since last Thursday (see recent daily results). The number with an unfavorable view of Obama has risen from 44% on Thursday to 50% today. Among White voters, Obama is now viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 54%.

Looked at from a slightly longer perspective, Obama’s overall favorable ratings peaked at 56% on February 21, shortly after he won the Wisconsin Primary. At that point, Clinton began raising questions about Obama as part of the campaign that ultimately enabled her to win the Texas and Ohio Primaries. Since then, Obama’s net favorability ratings have fallen seventeen points (from plus 14 points on February 21 to minus 3 points today).

McCain, visiting Iraq and left out of the Democratic mudslinging, is now viewed favorably by 54%, unfavorably by 42%. Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%, unfavorably by 52%. Her unfavorable total has been at or above 50% for most of the past month (see recent daily results). Negative attitudes towards Clinton remain more firmly entrenched than for the other candidates—35% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Clinton, 29% say the same about Obama, and 18% hold such a negative view of McCain.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Monday’s numbers show Obama with 46% support from Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton earns 44% of the vote (see recent daily results). Among Democrats, Clinton leads 48% to 42%, but Obama has a substantial lead among unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary.

Obama continues to enjoy overwhelming support from African-American voters while Clinton leads by seventeen points among White voters. Robert Novak takes a look at the Democrats’ Racial Divide and Geraldine Ferraro’s puzzling role in highlighting the divide. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll found that just 37% hold a favorable opinion of Ferraro and that most disagree with her recent comments.

Democrats now lead in states with 214 Electoral Votes while the GOP leads in states with 189 Electoral Votes. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Recent polling shows that, over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling).

Democrats also retain a modest lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 71.8% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 28.8%. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 43.6% chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.7% while Clinton’s prospects are at 17.7%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.