Reply #3: Here is what Jeff Masters wrote about this system yesterday: [View All]

[NNadir]

A tropical wave near 16N 57W, about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Visible satellite imagery shows a very robust surface circulation, but little thunderstorm activity associated with the wave. Strong upper level winds from the northwest are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the low, and this is keeping what little thunderstorm activity it has confined to the southeast quadrant. A 5:30 am EDT pass from the QuikSCAT satellite revealed surface winds of about 30 mph in this region. The low is embedded in a large area of dry, dust-laden Saharan air that moving west along with the low, limiting any chance the system has for intensification. In addition, wind shear is increasing in the region just ahead of the low's track, and should be high enough to prevent it from becoming a tropical depression today. The shear may relax down to the 15-20 knot range on Tuesday as the storm passes through the Lesser Antilles Islands near Guadaloupe, but dry air should still be a problem for it then. We still have one model that develops the system into a tropical storm--the GFDL model predicts that the system will hit Puerto Rico as a tropical depression on Wednesday, then intensify into a tropical storm that hits the Dominican Republic on Thursday. None of the other models buy this solution, and neither do I. Wind shear and dry air will probably combine to keep this wave from developing. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast through the Bahamas. The only chance the storm appears to have is if it can stay south of the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Sea.

The Hurricane Hunters are on call this afternoon and tomorrow in case a reconnaissance flight is needed into the system. Let's hope they get to enjoy the beach instead!

It seems that Dr. Masters has spent the last year or so eating his words. He puts the chance of it developing to hurricane strength, today, at 10%.

I look forward to PP's comments.