Can scientists look at next year's climate? [View All]

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http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/can-scientists-look-at-next-year-215064.aspx

Can scientists look at next year's climate?

By Stuart Wolpert | September 09, 2011

Is it possible to make valid climate predictions that go beyond weeks, months, even a year? UCLA atmospheric scientists report they have now made long-term climate forecasts that are among the best ever — predicting climate up to 16 months in advance, nearly twice the length of time previously achieved by climate scientists.

Forecasts of climate are much more general than short-term weather forecasts; they do not predict precise temperatures in specific cities, but they still may have major implications for agriculture, industry and the economy, said Michael Ghil, a distinguished professor of climate dynamics in the UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and senior author of the research.

The study is currently available online in the journal http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/30/1015753108.abstract">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) and will be published in an upcoming print edition of the journal.

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As is customary in this field, Ghil and his colleagues used five decades of climate data and test predictions retrospectively. For example, they used climate data from 1950 to 1970 to make "forecasts" for January 1971, February 1971 and beyond and see how accurate the predictions were. They reported achieving higher accuracy in their predictions 16 months out than other scientists achieved in half that time.

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