Reply #53: your capacity for lieing is truly amazing. STATE IN YEARS HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR ELECTRIC CARS TO [View All]

[JohnWxy]

SAVE AN APPRECIABLE FRACTION OF THE TRANSPORTATION SECTORS GHG EMISSIONS.

THE QUOTE YOU KEEP PASTING DOESN'T SAY ANYTHING ABOUT A TIME-FRAME.

LET'S SEE IF YOU CAN PRINT THE NUMBER OF YEARS TO SAVE SAY 20% OR 30%

I'LL BET YOU CAN'T DO IT.

YOU STATE:
"You have at least one answer (and as I've said, ALL of them contradict you) from Google and I did give you another from NREL so your claim that I haven't addressed your crap is just more crap."

I HAVEN'T SEEN ANY ANSWER FROM YOU IN PRINT AS TO THE NUMBER OF YEARS FOR PHEVS TO SAVE A GIVEN PERCENTAGE OF GHG EMISSIONS OF OF TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OR REDUCE GAS CONSUMPTION.

AND YOU'RE ALSO LIEING ABOUT THE SPREADSHEET.

YOU STATE: "As I recall the heart of your spreadsheet when you introduced it predicted an absurd rate of penetration for PHEVs with less than 1,000,000 cars after more than 20 years."

OF COURSE YOU USE "AS I RECALL" TO WEASEL OUT OF BEING NAILED FOR LIEING.

TO GET 1,500,000 CARS IN 20 YEARS FROM THAT SPREADSHEET YOU WOULD HAVE TO INPUT TO THE SPREAD-SHEET REQUESTING AN ESTIMATE OF YEARS TO SAVE 3 TENTHS OF ONE PERCENT OVER THAT SAVED BY IMPROVED EFFICIENCY OF ICE POWERED CARS - WITH 50,000 PHEVs SOLD IN THE FIRST YEAR AND ONLY A 4% ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN SALES. THOSE ARE THE VALUES YOU WOULD NEED TO GET 1.5 MILLION PHEVs IN 20 YEARS. I NEVER USED VALUES THAT LOW IN THE SPREADSHEET. (THE VALUES I USED VARIED - THAT WAS THE POINT, TO TEST VARIOUS VALUES. BUT THE VALUES I USED ORIGINALLY WERE 50,000 AND 100,000 FOR FIRST YEAR SALES AND ANNUAL SALES GROWTH RATES OF 20% AND 30%. NOTICE I VARIED THEM AS I WASN'T PREDICTING ANY ONE VALUE FOR INITIAL YEARS SALES OR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AS WOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO PREDICT ONE VALUE FOR ANY OF THOSE PARAMETERS.

ANYONE CAN TEST ME ON THIS. OPEN THE SPREADSHEET. IN CELL I8 ENTER .003 (3/10ths of one percent) and tab to C19 and enter 50,000 units for intitial years sales. then tab to D19 (one tab from C19) enter thE number 4 (formatted as percent this cell will treat a 4 as 4%. YOU WILL SEE THAT THE NUMBER OF UNITS AFTER 20 YEARS IS 1,564,286 (IN CELL J8). THE NUMBER OF YEARS IN CELL E19 IS 20.69.

NO, I NEVER SUGGESTED VALUES SUCH AS 4% ANNUAL SALES GROWTH AND NEVER SUGGESTED LOOKING AT 3/10THS PERCENT OF TOTAL GASOLINE CONSUMPTION SAVED OVER WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN SAVED BY ENHANCED EFFICIENCY ICE POWERED CARS (SPECIFICALLY 39 mpg (cell G4). GET REAL, 3/10ths OF A PERCENT? THIS IS WHAT YOU'D NEED TO ONLY GET 1.5 MILLION PHEVs OVER 20 YEARS, AS YOU CLAIMED I POSITED. BULL-SHIT. A 14 YR OLDs ATTEMPT TO SQUIRM OUT OF TROUBLE.

THIS SHOWS UNEQUIVOCALLY HOW FULL OF SHIT YOU ARE. YOU BETTER STICK TO ARGUING STARS WARS I WAS BETTER THAN STAR WARS II. THAT'S MORE YOUR SPEED.



YOU CLAIM TO HAVE PASTED ARTICLES THAT CONTRADICT ME. WHAT HAVE I CLAIMED? WHAT I HAVE SAID IS THAT GOOGLE'S ESTIMATE PROVIDES US WITH A WORKABLE BENCH-MARK. HOW MANY YEARS ARE THEY STATING FOR 41% SAVINGS IN TOTAL (INCLUDING SAVINGS FROM IMPROVED EFEICIENCY ICE POWERED CARS) ..WHAT THEY ARE STATING IS 20 YEARS. AND THAT IS ASSUMING ALL THE COAL IS REPLACED WITH ZERO EMISSIONS POWER SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY. I HAVE STATE THAT I THINK THAT IS A LAUDABLE GOAL BUT REALISTICALLY, I THINK 10% TO 15% REDUCTION IN COAL USE IS MORE REALISTIC. NOW IT THEIR IS THAT AMOUNT OF COAL BEING USED TO MAKE ELECTRICITY THAT MEANS THE GHG REDUCTIONS BY PHEVS WILL BE LESS - AND NOT INSIGNIFICANTLY LESS.



I HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN HANSEN'S STATAEMENT EITTHER. WHY THE FUCK WOULD I? HE SAID OBAMS MAY HAVE 4 YRS TO SAVE THE EARTH. THAT IS ENTIRELY CONSISTENT WITH WHAT OTHER CLIMATE RESEARCHERS SAID (10 YEARS, MAYBE, STATED ABOUT 5 YRS AGO. THAT'S ABOUT THE SAME AS SAYING 4 YRS FROM RIGHT NOW.