Reply #3: Illusion or delusion? [View All]

[Jim__]

I can't judge what I take to be his main point, namely, that there are no real accurate predictors of what will happen to the economy, even in the near future. I do accept that the economy is extremely complex, and predicting its future is difficult to say the least.

However, I think the sentence that I most agree with in his article is this, "The truth is, a bearish brain can only "hear" bearish predictions and growls at bullish ones." That indicates the phenomenon that he is describing is more of a delusion, more a part of our personal belief system, than an illusion. I believe the phenomenon he is describing is more a result of the fact that we believe what we believe, and in general, it takes a lot to get us to change a belief. That's probably a safer approach to life than changing our beliefs at the first sign that a particular belief may be wrong. But, given enough evidence, beliefs can change.