Reply #2: Or all could lose - it's dangerously close - [View All]

[Josh]

we often forget just how close each of the states that were won in 2000 were. Look at these totals:

IOWA
Gore: 48.6%
Bush: 48.3%

PENNSYLVANIA
Gore: 50.6%
Bush: 46.4% (doesn't seem like much but it was only 200,000 votes - and 2004 will be a very different year in terms of voting for Bush, though steel tarrifs may screw him here.)

MINNESOTA
Gore: 47.9%
Bush: 45.5%

NEW MEXICO
Gore: 47.9%
BusH: 47.8% (this race was decided by 371 votes)

OREGON
Gore: 47.1%
Bush: 46.6%

WISCONSIN
Gore: 47.8%
Bush: 47.6% (there were only 5,500 votes in this one.)

As you can see, it's all extremely close. And the edge is with Bush at this stage. I see far too many threads saying, "All the Democrats have to do is win whatever states Gore won in 2000 plus X." It won't be that easy.