Reply #4: These numbers do not take more important factors into account [View All]

[Walt Starr]

My prediction of the final totals:

Bush 67%
Dem 28%
Other 5%

Here's the chain of events I predict to bring us to those final results:

1) Beginning in April 2004 and continuing throughout the election cycle, troop levels will be steadily and dramatically increased in Iraq.

2) Throughout the summer and culminating with the Democratic Convention, Bush's ratings drop dramatically due to criticism over Iraq.

3) Bush gets a bit of a "dead cat" bounce after his convention in New York, but it is much smaller than expected due to high levels of protests. Polls are now 56% <insert Democratic nominee's name here> and 42% Bush.

4) "Surprise" bombing raids in Syria and Iran are quickly followed by a ground invasion of both nations in late October. Bush's approval ratings skyrocket to the high 70's and even the 80's in some polls (Faux news puts his approval at just under 97%).

5) Bush wins in a landslide victory as outlined in my above prediction.

These events are followed on by this:

6) Draft is reinstated on November 15th, 2004. Troop levels in the ME must be increased to over 1 million before March of 2005.

I have a baaaaad feeling about 2004, but my feelings about post 2004 are even worse...