We Are Heading Towards a Landslide (Bush's approval erroding everywhere) [View All]

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

I think we are heading towards a landslide election in 2006 and probably a bigger one in 2008. 2006 is going to be big, but 2008 will be a perfect storm. And this is all for one simple reason. You guessed it, Iraq. Newsweek has Bush's job approval at 42%, AP at 42%, CBS 45%, Zogby 45% and Gallup 44%. The pillar of his very legitimacy is terrorism, which is the issue he always has and still does poll the best on. It use to be in the 70% range. Every poll now has him just above 50%. And look at this link: http://www.surveyusa.com/Bush50StateApproval0605.htm

It is a breakdown and analysis of Bush's approval, state by state. In only 9 states is his approval above 50%. Here in Texas, his approval is 50%, disapproval 47% (idiots finally are realizing that just because he drives a pickup truck doesn't make him a good president). Bush has double digit net disapproval in 20 states and net approval in only 16. In OH Bush's approval is 40%, disapproval 57% (which explains Hackett's success). In NV his approval is 37%, disapproval 57% (which could be trouble for Senator Ensign, who is up next year).

Besides that, 4 rep senator seats up next year look vulnerable. We all know the story about Santorum in PA, behind 10% or more in every poll against his challenger. In OH, DeWine has a 37% approval and 31% reelect numbers. Hackett could knock him off. Not to mention Bush's approval in OH is horrible. In TN, the seat is open, Bush's approval in that state is 48%, disapproval 49%, and the only poll I have seen puts Harold Ford in a tie with his challenger (taken a long time ago, when Bush's approval was higher), with a large number of undecideds. In RI Chafee is in trouble. He is facing a possible primary challenge from a guy named Laffey for one. In the general election I haven't seen any polls with him behind, but I also haven't seen any with him polling much above 42% against any challenger. Sheldon Whitehouse, his possible challenger polls just behind him, with a lot of undecideds. Lackluster support is bad news for a sitting senator against an unknown possible challenger. Bush's approval (33% approval, 66% disapproval in RI) will drive all of this.

Besides that, there are 7 rep governor vacancies in 2006, including NY, AR, OH (current rep OH gov Taft approval is 17%) and CO. Besides that, the governors of CA, MN, MA, MD, and maybe GA (plus AL which I don't count as Roy Moore will probably be the next AL governor) are all unpopular and up next year. The only dem retirement is the popular Vilsack in IA. All of the dem governors up in red states (AZ, OK, KS, TN ect) have high approval. The DCCC has done polling showing 10 highly vulnerable rep congressmen, and the special election in OH might suggest this.

2008 could be worse. By then, Bush's approval will have another 3 years to erode, Iraq will have been a mess for 5 years, and one thing that wont happen in 2006 WILL happen in 2008: Bush will be blamed for Iraq, largely because it will be clear that he will leave this mess to the next president. Finally you will have the 2008 presidential race, and the dems have 9 fewer senate seats to defend (12 dems, 21 reps are up in 2008). If Mark Warner doesn't run for president, he will easily be able to pick up John Warners seat if he retires, because in 2008 when he comes up for reelection, he will be 81. Specter barely won reelection and has cancer. He is up in 2010 (when he will be 81), and whenever he leaves, the seat will be a guaranteed dem pickup.