Reply #42: Taking Syria is a big PNAC goal. [View All]

[amandabeech]

Not only does it help Israel, but it also provides a conduit for military movement into the Middle East and parts of Central Asia without entering the Persian Gulf through the dangerous Straits of Hormuz. An attack on Iran could then proceed without running the gamut of Russian Sunburn missiles in the Persian Gulf or begging the Turks to let us pass.

Syria also could provide an outlet for Middle Eastern and Central Asian oil and gas, bypassing not only the Persian Gulf, but also the Red Sea whose outlet is a pirate haven and the Black Sea and Bosporus, which are really controlled by Russia.

Such a route would also bypass Turkey, which refused, at the last minute, to let our troops and equipment transit into northern Iraq. Bypassing Turkey also allows the U.S. to make promises to the Kurds that would infuriate the Turks, like supporting an independent Kurdistan.

There is already a pipeline from northern Iraq through Syria to Syrian Mediterranean ports. The pipeline was in use just prior to the war. There is also a small, 8-inch pipeline running through Syria to Haifa in Israel dating from 1947 or so. That pipeline would be replaced with a much larger one.

There is also a pipeline running from Iraq's southern oil fields to the Syria pipeline. That could conceivably be extended to Kuwait or even southwestern Iran.

The likely Bush/PNAC plan would then have the U.S. attack Iran. Theoretically, it wouldn't be necessary to control the entire country, but instead, attempt to break off the southwestern oil field area which abuts Iraq and is populated withe Shia Arabs, like southern Iraq. A pipeline could then be built to join with the southern Iraqi pipeline system for export through Syria.

The U.S. would then secure northwestern Iran which has a high population of Azeris and Kurds. The Azeri areas could be returned to Azerbaijan and the Kurdish area joined with the Kurdish areas of Iraq and Syria to form a Kurdish state. A pipeline could then be built from Azerbaijan south through the new Azerbaijani provinces and Kurdistan to link up with the pipelines going through Syria to the Mediterranean. The pipeline would then displace the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline through Georgia and Turkey, bypassing the Bosporus and other trouble spots and leaving the errant Turks with a port at Ceyhan but not much oil to go through it.

I doubt that the PNAC crowd will be able to even try any of this in the present climate, especially considering what is now going on in the Senate. And of course, neither the Syrians nor the Iranians would give in. The guerrilla attacks on the current Iraqi pipeline system could pale in comparison to what would happen in Iran.

Nonetheless, the PNAC and thus the * administration will fight hard to take Syria as the first step in their plans to take over the Middle East and then the world. When they are defeated in 2008, they will just then go into opposition and wait for their chance in 2012. They have a long term time frame. So should we.