Economic models predict Bush win (CNN) [View All]

[kysrsoze]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite an embarrassing failure in their forecasting four years ago, political scientists and economists are again predicting the outcome of the presidential election, and most foresee a win for President George W. Bush.

"If this election follows historical patterns, it looks very likely that Bush is going to win," said Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose model is built mainly around gross domestic product growth and predicts that Bush will take 58.5 percent of the vote.

Current polls show a very close race with many suggesting that Democratic nominee John Kerry may be slightly ahead.

Chris Wlezien, a political scientist based at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford in Britain, is predicting Bush will win 52.5 percent of the vote in a model that combines income growth with presidential approval ratings.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/23/news/election_models/index.htm?cnn=yes

Ummm....what income growth? GDP based on military spending? What kind of garbage is this?