Cardin (D) polls better against Steele (R) than Mfume (D) does

[skipos]

What do you think about that?

Here is an article with more info...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/01/AR2006070101058.html

[nickshepDEM]

1. Doesnt suprise me at all.

Most people are aware of the fact that Cardin polls better and will be the better general election candidate. A few people have even stated that voting for Mfume is a vote from the heart, rather than the brain.

I will be voting for Cardin, without a doubt.

P.S. According to this poll Mfume leads Cardin in the primary.

[skipos]

2. Do you know anything about some Mfume scandal?

It was mentioned in another thread but no one answered.

I hear you on the heart vs. brain thing, but this seems like a case where both candidates are pretty good. Why does Cardin poll better in the general election?

[Stinky The Clown]

3. Here's a link to a story that is well over a year old, but mostly fair

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/bal-te.md.mfume29apr29,1,139236.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

As to why Cardin polls higher ... I honestly think there's one word that tells at least part of the story: race. That's not Cardin's fault. But I know many Dems who have a bit of it in them and they'll go for a white guy over a black guy if given a choice between two otherwise pretty much 'good guy' candidates.

[skipos]

4. Ugh. True or not, Steele would definitely take advantage of it.

Thanks for the link.

[sbj405]

5. The story seems contradictory

"For instance, if Cardin wins the Democratic primary, the poll shows that nearly a quarter of all black voters would back Steele."

This seems to be in conflict with Cardin polling better against Steele than Mfume. :shrug:

[DaveinMD]

6. Cardin

picks up a larger percentage of the white vote than Mfume. Its not really contradictory.

[sbj405]

7. So more white republicans would vote for Cardin, than blacks Dems

would vote for Steele?

[DaveinMD]

8. more white dems and independents

in Maryland moderate and conservative white democrats are the key swing voters. Ehrlich won these voters and is losing them now. More of them will vote for Cardin than Mfume and there are many more of these in a general election than there are black Democrats.

[formernaderite]

32. I've had white democrat stalwarts tell me they'd vote for Steele over Mfum

it's definitely a class issue for some...Mfume is in their words...too ghetto. Cardin seems to be the safe bet..but I personally think Mfume is terrific.

[Ken Burch]

33. Sounds like if Cardin won, we wouldn't be able to tell he was a Dem

We'd be reduced to the "committee chairs" arguement in support of a DINO.

Tragedy is, this isn't necessary. Barbara Mikulski proved that Maryland would elect a REAL Democrat, even a "non-traditional" real Democrat. All you need to do is reassemble the Mikulski coalition.

[formernaderite]

34. Actually I don't think that's right...Cardin is a great democrat

I just happen to be supporting Mfume because he's a terrific guy, and I would really like to see a black Senator from Maryland.

[Alex35332]

9. I wouldn't buy a MD poll

unless it includes the effect of the Zeese Campaign. Which according to Ben "who?" Cardin could take up to 10% of the vote, I saw this in some report in September so I can't find a link anymore.

BTW, I call him Ben "Who?" Cardin, because I have yet to see him show up to any candidate forum held in this state (I have been to probably 9 or so). Personally I find that disrespectful to the voters, and he has already lost my vote, then again he never had it.

[nickshepDEM]

10. 3rd party candidates are irrelevant in MD.

3rd party candidates rarely break 1-2%.

And Zeese is a fucking clown, he wont break 1%.

[Alex35332]

12. 1% could be enough

to KO Cardin.

[nickshepDEM]

15. Naaaaaaaaaaa

Steele isnt going to break 47-48%. He maxes out right there.

[Alex35332]

24. People high up in the

MD Democratic Senate Leadership, who I will keep anonymous, told a group of TrueVoters that they think Cardin has ZERO shot of beating Steele, they are also not so sure about beating Ehrlich. Though that was in January...

I think for Ehrlich the overall effectiveness as Governor polls should be a warning sign for the Dems, last I heard thats polling in the mid 50%'s. Usually that matters more then the horse race in an executives re-election campaign.

If Rove is in behind Steele (he is), we are voting on Diebold machines (we are), and the press is no longer doing exit polls (they aren't), anything can and will happen. Cardin is not a strong candidate, I don't get a sense of leadership from him. I have yet to see him take a stance on any issue. He can easily be called a "flip flopper" on the war now, though thats a 2004 term so they wont use it, Steele will probably use the words "Cut and Run", and I have yet to see anyone in the Democratic party counter the "Cut-&-Run" line, successfully. The Greens have a solid comeback but not the Dem's.

I have no idea who will win this election there are too many unpredictables.

No body knows how turnout will go for this election, early voting will probably not pan out as well as many think, the voting system we are using for it is currently illegal from my understanding, and I think the GOP is likely to challenge those votes in court if given the opportunity, on those grounds.

Will the machines fail, and if so will it be covered up like it was in Baltimore County in 04? I will bet that if that happens the Democrats will not challenge it, they after all ended up fighting to keep the Diebold machines.

Once we get into the general election, who will fight dirty, what will be said? That will effect the results.

You ask me the senate race is still totally in play if its, Cardin-Steele-Zeese, (arranged alphabetically).

[Terran1212]

13. The Maryland democrats are clowns

If we want to tell the whole truth here, that is.

[DaveinMD]

14. huh?

we have so many great Democrats in this state.

[Terran1212]

16. A little harsh, what I said

I just think the great Democrats should run for office and recieve support then.

[DaveinMD]

17. many of them do

We have a ton of outstanding elected officials.

[Alex35332]

18. We also have some really bad ones

I would say its about 50-50 from what I can tell, there are some I respect, but we have a lot of schafer democrats in the statehouse . The problem is we have to many who have been in power too long. That has kind of warped them on some issues, like the Voting Machines.

We always have to be careful, when one party is in power for so long it leads to a worse backlash. And thanks to the pro-militarization of MD, ie Ft Detrick. This is becoming more and more of a red state. Why the Dem's are so pro military in MD when the Military is so Pro-GOP is beyond me. If they want to keep MD "blue" they need to keep as many MD jobs out of the military sector. IMHO.

[Cozmosis]

11. Cardin is a much better candidate. No surprise here. nt

[cjbass141]

19. Cardin isn't the better Candidate

He is the candidate for corporate interest, which has been filling his coffers up for years. The fact that he has more money than Steele should raise an alarm. He tried to use his money to drown out opposition but it won't work. Mfume is the one who is actually connecting with voters and he is the clear progressive in this race.

Mfume won't fund the war in Iraq like Cardin did, he won't vote for the patriot act, and he won't answer to corporate masters. Kweisi can win if the party rallies behind him. The DLC Cardin backers should be exposed for what they are shills who are trying to use scare tactics to promote their corporate agenda.

I think Cardin himself isn't actually as bad as the DLC people, and he has taken some good positions, the problem is that he won't have the backbone to stand up to the right and will end up just being another boring centerist. He obviously comes with strings attached, not to mention he is running a lackluster campaign.

[newyawker99]

35. Hi cjbass141!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[cjbass141]

20. keep it real

keep it real y'all there wont be a Republican winning in MD

[TrueFunkSoldier]

21. Don't be so sure...

I am a black woman in this state and I know the power that the mega-black churches yield. I can see Mike Steele attempting to form an alliance with these power elites and using race, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-abortion issues to play on the fears of 'fundie-Christian' fascists in the state. He was successful in Ohio, getting black fundamentalists there to vote for Bush. And he's trying to appeal to the black connies here in Maryland, too--in P.G. County especially!! It's going to take progressives of all stripes and the underclass, an organized, grassroots counteractive strategy, to defeat this chump who poses as a Christian but is only an opportunist of the worst kind. I still don't think it's going to be an easy feat.

[Stinky The Clown]

22. From your perspective, how will Mfume do?

Can/does he appeal in, say, PG County?

I really worry about that part of the state. It has long been pretty much ignored by many and may well turn to the Repubs if they appear more aupportive.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

25. Prince George's is a worry if the progressives...

don't get out and vote. What scares me specifically is the power of the black elite who have bought into this prosperity theology and then marry that with politics. The mega-churches, their leaders in particular, weld a great deal of influence. If the leaders are fooled by Steele's false Christianity, I predict that many of the black fundamentals will vote for Steele. It happened when Steele ran last time. Ehrlich dispatched him to P.G. county and they created the "Democrats for Ehrlich" groups. Good news: Kennedy-Townsend was a dismal candidate in 2002.

This time around, there are reasonably good candidates: Mfume and/or Cardin. Cardin is a virtual unknown in the black community outside of Baltimore. Mfume is also from Baltimore, but he does well in P.G. county. My fear is that if Cardin wins the primary, he'll have to work extremely hard in P.G. county to appeal to the well-to-do fundie-Christians. If Mfume wins the primary, he'll take Baltimore and P.G. County for sure, but his challenge is to win white voters outside those two areas. I am very worried because it would appear that Steele has the advantage, being black, being a Repug and using Ehrlich's presence to appeal to mainline conservatives in the West and South. No Democrat can win Maryland without carrying BOTH Baltimore and P.G. counties. Steele doesn't have to win either; all he has to do is siphon enough votes from each county to win the state. If the black fundies join Steele, it's over...

This is not going to be as easy as people are making it out to be. Although there's no question that Mfume is the clear progressive, he is too divisive and polarizing of a character. Steele's charge that the NAACP is racist and intolerant of black Repugs may play well in the conservative districts hostile to Mfume, his politics, and the NAACP.

On the other hand, Cardin doesn't have the name recognition. He has the money and political prestige, but again, not the immediate recognition that Steele and Mfume has. If we want to win this Senate seat, the best bet is for Cardin. If Mfume wins the primary, it's over for Dems in this state.

That's my opinion, anyway...

[Stinky The Clown]

26. Thanks for your insight

I keep having to say this. Mfume is who I **really** want, and who I'll support in the primary. But my head tells me to stay with Cardin .... tried and true, and all that.

But dammit, the Maryland Dems have GOT to start paying some serious attention to PG County.

[aintitfunny]

27. "Mfume is too divisive and polarizing"

Could you elaborate on the specifics of this statement. I have heard "Mfume has baggage" and then people will bring up un-substantiated rumors and unproven allegations. Mfume is impressive in person and has achieved remarkable progress with very little money. He was a great congressman. He does have an early history as a young troublemaker and then a series of out of wedlock children that some christians will clearly have a problem with, but he is also a man of strong faith and belief. Redemption is fundamental among fundamental christians - Mfume has a compelling story of redemption and he has devoted many years to public service.

In a match of Mfume and Steele or Steel and Cardin, Black Republicans would support Steele, we do not lose what we did not have in the first place. Conversely, Steele's ties to the Bush and even Ehrlich administrations could draw Indies to the Dem candidate and potentially republicans as well.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

28. To "MMCGHENN"

I think I may have misspoken. When I stated that I thought of Mfume as a "polarizing and divisive figure," I simply meant that he would divide some of the white electorate: conservatives hostile to NAACP and moderate to progressive whites who believe that Mfume is "too liberal" and won't stand a chance against Cardin. Rather than go for the better candidate (in my view, Mfume because he is the true progressive), they'd rather vote their brains rather than their hearts, as someone stated earlier. On the other hand, Mfume may have a problem in the black community as well, dividing black progressives and fundamentalists. As the Post article states, Steele has been doing a great job using the "gay marriage" issue in some black communities that are conservative, high-profile, well-to-do, etc. Mfume's secret weapon? Get Bill Clinton here FAST!! Get Martin O'Malley here FAST!! Clinton and O'Malley are extremely popular amongst blacks of ALL stripes!! They hate Bush. Both Mfume and Cardin need to continue to tie Steele to Bush and the unpopular Iraqi "war" . Steele is trying to run fast and hard from this issue, but let's face it: Iraq, NOT GAY MARRIAGE, ABORTION, is the CENTRAL MOST IMPORTANT issue of the election! Mfume has been consistently against the invasion. Cardin, in my view, "voted for it before he voted against it." Mfume does have a chance...

http://www.mfumeforsenate.com/index.php

[aintitfunny]

30. Thanks for the clarification

I understand your well reasoned points. That being said I think Mfume will be able to overcome the issues in the black community that could arise. The "values" issues that supposedly re-seated Bush in 2004 are not making the same headway. People are not going to vote against their own interests just to prevent two guys from getting married. Iraq is important. Steele would support the Bush administration with unerring loyalty give or take the occasional demonstration of independence (all for show). As for winning the conservative to moderate white vote - he will hold his own if the party gets behind him as they should.

It is up to the Democratic Party and the party faithful to make sure the citizens of the state know that Steele is in Bush's pocket. All I can say is they better make good if Mfume gets the nod, and it is looking very possible. Just because they "appointed" Cardin as the heir to Sarbanes seat, does not mean they can pick up their toys and go home if Cardin loses. They need to get ready to support Mfume financially and every other way.

I would hate to lose the best man for the seat because of over-cautious prognostication, however educated and informed it might be. I believe Mfume can overcome many of the expectations and win against Steele handily. The advances he has made so far with so little money speaks to this.

I will support the nominee, and work for them, whoever it may be. I want Mfume to be the nominee. Should he become our party's candidate I will work my rather substantial ass off to see him become the Senator. :-)

[Alex35332]

31. Didn't Cardin

vote against the War before he voted for it? "voted no to the war but is pro-funding, anti- timetable for withdrawal.

I am more anti-Cardin because he is pro-patriot act, pro-israel militarism, anti-freedom of the web, pro-the turning over of phone records to the gvmnt. All that and he is a corporate sellout when it comes to funding.

[Alex35332]

23. I am just warning you

watch out, they are militarizing MD and that is not gonna keep MD blue. Every politico I have talked to/ hear on TV, when they talk about this state says that MD is going to become a 2 party state in the next 8-10 years.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

29. Turn the table on Steele using race!

Another surefire way to turn the table on Steele who has consistently labeled the NAACP as a "racist" and "intolerant" organization because they are "hostile to black Republicans," is to remind Steele that his beloved Repugs are stalling on the VRA renewal. If Steele goes there, then both Cardin and Mfume should put him to the test. Ask him to explain exactly why HIS party--who is seemingly hellbent on reaching out to blacks--is refusing to renew the VRA?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060712/ap_on_go_co/immigra...

WASHINGTON - A conservative backlash to the massive street demonstrations over immigration is aggravating Republican leaders' carefully orchestrated plans to renew the landmark Voting Rights Act before the fall elections.

After Latinos came out in greater force than they have in decades to protest a House-passed immigration bill, conservatives persuaded Republican leaders not to force a vote last month to extend for 25 years the law that requires bilingual ballots in precincts with large non-English-speaking populations.

They joined with a group of Southern Republicans who object to extending the law's requirement that nine states have federal oversight decades after they quit hindering blacks' access to voting booths through Jim Crow laws.

[Sasha Undercover]

36. I know I'm late to th

party but will somebody please tell me why they think Mfume is either a better candidate or would be a better Senator? I'm totally not getting it.

Mfume has been going around the state telling his life story in virtually the same words as in the book. He hasn't said squat about what he would do. And, frankly, he's pretty insulting to women while he is doing it.

Cardin has the Baltimore vote, black and white, knows how to get things done, and yes, will pick up the racist democrat vote.

What am I not getting about the wonderfulness of Mfume?