Source:
CBS NewsSen. Lisa Murkowski has decided to run as a write-in candidate in the Alaska Senate race, according to a person briefed on her plans, throwing what had expected to be an easy race for Republicans into turmoil.
She plans to announce the run at 10 p.m. Eastern Time (6 p.m. local) in Anchorage.
In an email in advance of the announcement, Bonnie Jack, a Murkowski elections observer, asked supporters to "Join us at the Kick-off of Senator Lisa's campaign --with a theme of 'write in her name in and fill in the oval.'"
Murkowski narrowly lost the Republican primary to the Tea Party- and Sarah Palin-backed Joe Miller, and Republicans have promised to put their money and support behind Miller in the race regardless of what Murkowski does. She will now likely step down from her position in the Republican leadership, and the next two months could be tense between her and her colleagues.
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Go Lisa! Split the Repuke vote!
Nate Silver says she has a chance of winning.
The Hotline reports that Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who was defeated in the Republican primary last month by Joe Miller, will run for the Senate as a write-in candidate against Mr. Miller and the Democratic candidate, Scott McAdams.
The move is not entirely unexpected: Ms. Murkowski had not endorsed Mr. Miller, and instead had reportedly been in discussions with the Libertarian Party to appear on their ballot line. The Libertarians having refused her overtures, the only option remaining for Ms. Murkowski was to run as a write-in (Alaska, like most states, does not permit candidates to file for the ballot as independents after the party primaries have taken place).
Can Ms. Murkowski win? Sure she can. There is plenty of precedent for write-ins being elected to the Congress, although fewer have done so successfully in recent years. Meanwhile, a poll by Public Policy Polling found Ms. Murkowski getting 34 percent of the vote against Mr. Miller’s 38 percent and Mr. McAdams’ 22 percent. Private polling has also shown Ms. Murkowski running closely with Mr. Miller, according to The Hotline.
These polls must be approached with some caution. The survey from Public Policy Polling, for instance, asked voters to contemplate what they would do if Ms. Murkowski’s name appeared on the ballot as a Libertarian — rather than as a write-in.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/17/murkowski-can-win-as-write-in/?partner=rss&emc=rss