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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

karynnj

(59,474 posts)
33. Polls math and logic are not what is driving him and his supporters at this point
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 11:14 AM
Mar 2020

With all primaries (I think) pushed back a month or now from now, they are considering that extraordinary times will lead to major change and they see that as a movement to everything Sanders has spoken of for decades. Personally, the absolute chaos and inability to govern of Trump is more likely to have people move to someone competent and "safe" and comforting - all of which shout out Joe Biden. Nearly every candidate who has dropped out is closer to this than Sanders is.

Looking at past primaries, it is clear that in all years since 1988, with the exception of 2000 and years with an incumbent Democratic president, someone stayed in long after they reasonably could have won. In 1988, Jessie Jackson was in until the end of the primaries. In 1992, Bill Clinton did not actually get the delegates needed until June after a weak start when he lost the first 4 contests, but he was clearly moving there - Jerry Brown was in until the end.

In the DU years, this was even stronger.

In 2004, Kerry was highly unlikely to lose after Iowa, NH and then won 5 of 7 states in this first multi state day. Importantly, these were states that did not favor a New Englander (which is why Dean ignored them to concentrate on the next set). Edwards stayed in, having won only SC until Kerry had so many pledged delegates that he was nearly at the number (which would include superdelegates at the convention) he needed to win. Sanders is FAR stronger than Edwards and Kerry's actual victories even before that SuperTuesday (not potential victories where he was ahead in polls) was stronger than Biden's lead now. Yet there were not hundreds (or any that I remember) suggesting he drop out - even as he was claiming that Kerry's goal to insure everyone was not affordable.

In 2008, the race was incredibly close, but for the last couple of months, Clinton would have needed an Obama mistake to win the election. She was in until the last primary. It was clear that even as she lost, it took time for her and many people supporting her to realize that the dream that many had for decades was over.

In 2016, Sanders was clearly not likely to win. The estimate of how big he would have to win California, where HRC was predicted to have a big, easy win, was daunting. However, he spoke of feeling that as there were people wanting to vote for him there he should continue running. There were calls then for him to drop out. It is interesting that this contrasted with no one demanding Edwards or Dean drop out when Kerry was as further ahead than Clinton was.

I am not surprised at this new spurt of energy by both his team and him. It is often said that a month in politics is an eternity. Throw in that they feel he better fits the turbulent times. The danger in what he is doing is that some on his team are continuing by throwing mud at Biden. It would be great if there is any Democrat who has the ability to get Sanders to disavow this - possibly Senator Leahy. - that someone get him to reject that ugliness. I think Biden, essentially taking on the mantle of the presumptive winner and speaking as the head of the party as the President he could be in January is the best way to win the delayed primaries.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Huh? Laelth Mar 2020 #1
wow catsudon Mar 2020 #68
Sanders' Path: Through The Looking-Glass Into The Tornado Headed For The Second Star On The Right nt smb Apr 2020 #76
This Has Been Another Episode Of Lame Comments From No One In Particular, Sir The Magistrate Mar 2020 #2
stop ascribing motive NJCher Mar 2020 #41
Why Do Expect Me To Suspend Use Of My Faculties, Ma'am? The Magistrate Mar 2020 #44
So what is his motive? The Velveteen Ocelot Apr 2020 #79
Delusional thinking bucolic_frolic Mar 2020 #3
do tell about delustional NJCher Mar 2020 #42
Good.. because we're talking the Reality here that BS Cha Mar 2020 #67
Meanwhile, up on the front lines, VP Biden battles all those Hortensis Mar 2020 #4
Biden is presidential mcar Mar 2020 #50
WTF...? B Stieg Mar 2020 #5
He should stop giving his supporters false hope. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #6
Sure there is... George II Mar 2020 #7
That was my first thought! mcar Mar 2020 #52
Bernie is in a state of denial. TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #8
Gollum still can't let go of his precious... comradebillyboy Mar 2020 #9
Lol, good one! Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #10
This is Sanders' lone path to the nomination BidenBacker Mar 2020 #11
This is just another desperate attempt duforsure Mar 2020 #12
And Biden isn't going to drop out. There's a national emergency. dawg day Mar 2020 #56
Does he think there is gonna be a floor fight? gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #13
Here is 538s delegate forecast for the remaining delegates - Biden is leading EVERY SINGLE ONE! George II Mar 2020 #14
I dunno, George BidenBacker Mar 2020 #16
Notice that he does best in the whitest states? George II Mar 2020 #17
Good name for the new political party BidenBacker Mar 2020 #25
Where's DownriverDem Mar 2020 #19
West of Ontario and east of Wisconsin. George II Mar 2020 #21
Badum-bum...nt SidDithers Mar 2020 #48
Polls math and logic are not what is driving him and his supporters at this point karynnj Mar 2020 #33
Great analysis. Thanks. Blasphemer Mar 2020 #65
In-Your-Dreams! Hang it up, Bernie. Stick a fork in him, he's done! machoneman Mar 2020 #15
Oh please DownriverDem Mar 2020 #18
Yeah, and we aren't going to give it to him. Cha Mar 2020 #66
Yeah RandySF Mar 2020 #20
He is as selfish as Donald Trump. PubliusEnigma Mar 2020 #22
Hey now, PE BidenBacker Mar 2020 #30
Actually, Sir, If You Read The Notorious Article In 'Vermont Freeman' The Magistrate Mar 2020 #45
Wow, Mag BidenBacker Mar 2020 #46
The Man Wrote It, Sir The Magistrate Mar 2020 #47
Interesting take you got there BidenBacker Mar 2020 #58
Here's one I bet Bernie read as a kid BidenBacker Mar 2020 #61
I Have Seen a Few Of Those, Sir The Magistrate Mar 2020 #63
I agree nini Mar 2020 #60
What a load of bullshit. Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #23
He knows damn well he won't win, this is just ego and narcissism. lark Mar 2020 #28
Sanders is the Democratic parties perennial albatross justhanginon Mar 2020 #24
This is his last shot to run for POTUS Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2020 #27
All that matters to BS at his point, his last shot - at anything empedocles Mar 2020 #37
Punishing all Democrats because we won't support him, he's trying to ensure Biden's loss to drumpf. lark Mar 2020 #26
Path of destruction. Hoyt Mar 2020 #29
This Sh*t is Why So Many Dems Hate Bernie Indykatie Mar 2020 #31
This is dangerous. honest.abe Mar 2020 #32
that all depends on how biden and his supporters act doesn't it? questionseverything Apr 2020 #78
Why are Biden and his supporters ... NanceGreggs Apr 2020 #80
Ditto for Bernie and his supporters, yes? ehrnst Apr 2020 #82
That's the problem.. it wont matter what Biden and his supporters do. honest.abe Apr 2020 #83
Bernie is still delusional. Sloumeau Mar 2020 #34
Of course BlueIdaho Mar 2020 #35
Did you forget this contingency BidenBacker Mar 2020 #39
Oh Damn! I forgot the monkeys! BlueIdaho Mar 2020 #40
I was thinking in terms of Westworld. Is this a revolution, tirebiter Mar 2020 #59
Not even if Biden drops out Bernie randr Mar 2020 #36
Sandes says there is a path, and then... he stops. He is mum about what that path is. beastie boy Mar 2020 #38
Not enough delegates left unless he wins 100% of them lees1975 Mar 2020 #43
... SidDithers Mar 2020 #49
... mcar Mar 2020 #51
I'll bet he will run as independent Kablooie Mar 2020 #53
Does that path involve a genie and three wishes? Bleacher Creature Mar 2020 #54
No there is not. Sanders will not win the nomination. Freethinker65 Mar 2020 #55
I despise this disruptor nini Mar 2020 #57
This is getting dangerous. ucrdem Mar 2020 #62
Putin wants sanders to stay in this race as long as possble Gothmog Mar 2020 #64
Thank you Todd79 Mar 2020 #69
... ehrnst Mar 2020 #70
Yep. sheshe2 Mar 2020 #71
Hey Bernie... it's over! OVER!! NurseJackie Mar 2020 #72
Boom! sheshe2 Mar 2020 #73
The path requires Joe Bided to die Gothmog Apr 2020 #74
sanders is trailing by almost 40% Gothmog Apr 2020 #75
Sanders is a party destroyer... pbmus Apr 2020 #77
Biden might have a chance Chainfire Apr 2020 #81
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