Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Sanders say there is a path to win the nomination [View all]karynnj
(59,474 posts)With all primaries (I think) pushed back a month or now from now, they are considering that extraordinary times will lead to major change and they see that as a movement to everything Sanders has spoken of for decades. Personally, the absolute chaos and inability to govern of Trump is more likely to have people move to someone competent and "safe" and comforting - all of which shout out Joe Biden. Nearly every candidate who has dropped out is closer to this than Sanders is.
Looking at past primaries, it is clear that in all years since 1988, with the exception of 2000 and years with an incumbent Democratic president, someone stayed in long after they reasonably could have won. In 1988, Jessie Jackson was in until the end of the primaries. In 1992, Bill Clinton did not actually get the delegates needed until June after a weak start when he lost the first 4 contests, but he was clearly moving there - Jerry Brown was in until the end.
In the DU years, this was even stronger.
In 2004, Kerry was highly unlikely to lose after Iowa, NH and then won 5 of 7 states in this first multi state day. Importantly, these were states that did not favor a New Englander (which is why Dean ignored them to concentrate on the next set). Edwards stayed in, having won only SC until Kerry had so many pledged delegates that he was nearly at the number (which would include superdelegates at the convention) he needed to win. Sanders is FAR stronger than Edwards and Kerry's actual victories even before that SuperTuesday (not potential victories where he was ahead in polls) was stronger than Biden's lead now. Yet there were not hundreds (or any that I remember) suggesting he drop out - even as he was claiming that Kerry's goal to insure everyone was not affordable.
In 2008, the race was incredibly close, but for the last couple of months, Clinton would have needed an Obama mistake to win the election. She was in until the last primary. It was clear that even as she lost, it took time for her and many people supporting her to realize that the dream that many had for decades was over.
In 2016, Sanders was clearly not likely to win. The estimate of how big he would have to win California, where HRC was predicted to have a big, easy win, was daunting. However, he spoke of feeling that as there were people wanting to vote for him there he should continue running. There were calls then for him to drop out. It is interesting that this contrasted with no one demanding Edwards or Dean drop out when Kerry was as further ahead than Clinton was.
I am not surprised at this new spurt of energy by both his team and him. It is often said that a month in politics is an eternity. Throw in that they feel he better fits the turbulent times. The danger in what he is doing is that some on his team are continuing by throwing mud at Biden. It would be great if there is any Democrat who has the ability to get Sanders to disavow this - possibly Senator Leahy. - that someone get him to reject that ugliness. I think Biden, essentially taking on the mantle of the presumptive winner and speaking as the head of the party as the President he could be in January is the best way to win the delayed primaries.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden