Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

BidenBacker

(1,089 posts)
8. Here's what I was gonna post before he deleted
Mon Mar 30, 2020, 07:12 PM
Mar 2020
The Case for: Joe Biden

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/29/21078640/joe-biden-beat-trump-win-2020-election-primaries

How Democrats won in 2018
Two important storylines about the Democratic Party emerged from the 2018 election.

The first is the rise of the far left, best symbolized by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset victory against longtime Democrat Joe Crowley in New York. Ocasio-Cortez instantly became a leading voice in the new progressive wing of the party.

The second storyline to emerge has gotten far less attention but explains how Democrats actually won. While Ocasio-Cortez represents an important new force in the party, her win over a fellow Democrat didn’t change the party makeup of the House. That bragging right goes to a crop of moderate Democrats who ran careful, pragmatic campaigns. They won on tangible policy ideas, like preserving the Affordable Care Act’s provision on preexisting conditions. They weren’t calling for a revolution, so much as a return to stability.

An analysis by Alan I. Abramowitz at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia found that candidates in the 2018 midterms who supported Medicare-for-all performed worse than those who did not.

It’s true that the progressive left helped inspire enthusiasm, including a surge of new voters and young voters. Latinx voters made up a larger vote share in 2018 than in previous elections.

But as Yair Ghitza of the Democratic data firm Catalist estimates, about 89 percent of the party’s improved vote margin is attributable to swing voting — not higher turnout by committed Democrats. “A big piece of Democratic victory was due to 2016 Trump voters turning around and voting for Democrats in 2018.”

Ghitza also found that even though many of the Democratic wins were in suburban districts, “rural areas largely moved in a Democratic direction, often by even larger margins than the suburbs.”

To carry these districts and win the Electoral College, the Democratic nominee must appeal to a broad swath of voters — including Trump voters. Biden stumped in these districts in 2018 and candidates welcomed his help, a sign that he’s the strongest choice to do it in 2020.


Don't know about you guys but I want that SOB McConnell gone damn near as much as I do Trump. Sanders ain't got no swing. Some of these Bernie folks just can't seem to get it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Let it simmer. gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #1
That Gap Will Only Grow Wider, Sir The Magistrate Mar 2020 #2
Indeed it will Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #3
One has to wonder about those 36%. Cha Mar 2020 #4
Well folks, this grim stat sure as hell didn't take very long to reach BidenBacker Mar 2020 #5
Post removed Post removed Mar 2020 #6
And no musical guests? RandySF Mar 2020 #7
Here's what I was gonna post before he deleted BidenBacker Mar 2020 #8
Meanwhile... BidenBacker Mar 2020 #9
"about 89 percent of the party's improved vote margin is attributable to swing voting" Awsi Dooger Mar 2020 #10
My gut says BidenBacker Mar 2020 #11
The "Hoax" That Hurts BidenBacker Mar 2020 #12
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»More Americans trust Joe ...»Reply #8