Youth isn't turning out and that's bad for Democrats

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Youth vote drops about 6% in midterms in overall percentage

This stuff does not change. Don't let Rachel Bitecofer or anyone else pretend otherwise. There is no such thing as magical turnout.

The 18-29 crowd is always in the 12-13% of the electorate in midterms and 18-19% of the electorate in presidential years. That's partially why Democrats do not have the midterm upside of Republicans. Even when we have a wave midterm landscape there aren't enough youth or single women showing up to push toward that type of +60 or +75 House seat net that Republicans are capable of during their own wave midterm.

You can assign 18 or 19% right now toward the 2020 youth turnout, in relation to total electorate. The name of our nominee means nothing. The day to day details mean nothing. That's what the percentage is going to be.

The overriding variable is preference.