Post debate poll- Who do you support: Sanders or Biden

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Easy Biden, but either way Trump's approval number would need to drop

That approval number is the key variable. The coronavirus adds considerable uncertainty. There isn't a great precedent or easily projected timetable. The markets have dropped but not amidst panic selling. It is more of a gauge toward how the public is thinking.

If cases break out within the United States, then public panic will soar and the market will plunge. Logically, that impacts Trump's approval rating to the negative, especially since he is guaranteed to make stupid dismissive comments that the American public will not agree with. It would be a version of, "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job," except multiple times more damaging.

If Trump's approval drops back to 40-42% range instead of 43-44% territory, then all of our candidates have considerably greater opportunity, including Bernie. I don't see anything else out there with potential for Trump to make a fool of himself except this coronavirus.

I'm not rooting for that virus. Merely pointing out the potential ramifications. Sorry for the detour but I try to look at these things as a handicapper.